Part 1) Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that capitalize on market trends.

In the short term IBM has been accelerating higher. In the long term IBM has been accelerating higher. With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with a one week time horizon.

Part 2) Trade idea details

Chart

Buy $ 64,316 USD of IBM, take profit at $ 148.3614 level with 50.0% odds for a $ 999 USD gain, stop out at $ 143.8186 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through 1w time horizon

Part 3) IBM trend analysis

IBM

IBM last price was $ 146.09 . The short term trend accelerating higher is stronger than the long term trend accelerating higher. This trade goes long when the last change was higher and accelerating .

Part 4) IBM value analysis

Chart

Over the past 23 days, the IBM price increased 17 days and decreased 6 days. For every up day, there were 0.35 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 1.2391% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.6111% Over the past 23 Days, the price has increased by 18.77% percent. Over the past 23 days, the average return per day has been 0.8161% percent.

Part 5) IBM worst/best case scenario analysis

Chart

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for IBM, is $ 139.3628 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 152.8172 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 143.8186 could trade and that $ 148.3614 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key takeaways

  • Price today $ 146.09.

  • Over the past 23 days, the IBM price increased 17 days and decreased 6 Days.

  • For every up day, there were 0.35 down days.

  • The average return on days where the price increased is 1.2391%.

  • The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.6111%.

  • Over the past 23 Days, the price has increased by 18.77% percent.

  • Over the past 23 days, the average return per day has been 0.8161% percent.

  • Over the past 23 days, The price has on average been accelerating: $ 0.0927 per day higher.

  • Over the last session, the price increased by $ 2.68.

  • Over the last session, the price increased by 1.8345 %.

  • Over the last session, the price accelerated by $ 1.96.

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Volatility Markets provides trend following trade ideas for momentum traders. The Volatility Markets Newswire measures the direction and acceleration of a security and then structures a trade idea to capitalize on the trend. While trends have been shown to exist in markets over the past 100 years, they are no guarantee of future asset prices. You should take these ideas lightly and at your own risk.

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