German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment unexpectedly drops to 58.3

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment unexpectedly drops to 58.3 in February. Economists expected the sentiment data to have improved to 65.0 from 59.6 in January.

The ZEW Survey - Current Situation improves to -65.9 from -72.7 in January, but misses estimates of -65.7.

In the Eurozone, the ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment deteriorates to 39.4 from the previous reading of 40.8. The data was expected to come in higher at 45.2.

Market reaction

There seems to be no significant impact of the data on the Euro (EUR). As of writing, EUR/USD trades marginally lower to near 1.1845.

This section below was published at 07:40 GMT as a preview of the German ZEW Survey data for February.

German ZEW Survey Overview

The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index for February at 10:00 GMT later on Tuesday.

ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment Index for Germany is expected to rise to 65.0 in February, from 59.6 that came in January. Meanwhile, the Current Situation Sub-Index is expected to improve to -65.7 in the reported month, up from the previous reading of -72.7.

ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in Eurozone is expected to improve to 45.2 in February, from 40.8 previously.

How could the German ZEW Survey affect EUR/USD?

The EUR/USD pair may stay subdued if Germany’s ZEW Survey data meet forecasts, as earlier Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures for January offered little support for the Euro (EUR). However, the Euro may gain support as the European Central Bank (ECB) announced to expand global access to the EUR liquidity backstop to bolster the currency’s international role.

The EUR/USD pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm, with traders cautious ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. Attention will then turn to Q4 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday for clearer policy signals.

Technically, the EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.1830 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator at 53 (neutral) signals consolidation with a modest upside lean. The immediate resistance lies at the psychological level of 1.1850, aligned with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1854. On the downside, the primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.1773.

(This story was corrected on February 17 at 10:52 GMT to say that the German ZEW Survey - Current Situation improved from -72.7 in January, not October.)

Economic Indicator

ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment

The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).

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