Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles to sustain above $1,810, spotlight is on Fed minutes

Gold price is attempting to establish above $1,810.00 as DXY corrects further.
Escalating recession fears have brought further correction in the DXY.
This week, Fed minutes and the US NFP will keep investors busy.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) has overstepped the crucial resistance of $1,810.00 and is aiming to sustain above the same amid a weaker US dollar index (DXY). As investors have shifted to the sidelines ahead of the release of the June meeting minutes, the gold prices and the DXY are expected to display wild moves till then.

The DXY has displayed a repulsive action after slipping below the psychological support of 105.00 in the early Tokyo session. A modest rebound is expected to turn into a downside move sooner as odds of a bumper rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have trimmed.

Considering the soaring inflation in the US economy, investors were hoping for a consecutive 75 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Fed. Now, the downbeat US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has trimmed the growth forecasts and the Fed might resort to a 50 bps rate hike or even less.

Apart from the Fed minutes, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will hog the limelight. A preliminary estimate for the US NFP is 250k, significantly lower than the prior print of 390k.

Gold technical analysis

The gold prices have taken support from the horizontal support placed on June 14 at $1,805.11. Going forward, the downward sloping trendline placed from June 12 high at $1,879.26 will act as a major barrier for the precious metal. The bright metal is firmly stable above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,806.18. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is attempting to violate 60.00, which will strengthen the gold bulls further.

Gold hourly chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1811.77
Today Daily Change	0.65
Today Daily Change %	0.04
Today daily open	1811.12

Trends
Daily SMA20	1832.99
Daily SMA50	1847.48
Daily SMA100	1891.56
Daily SMA200	1845.46

Levels
Previous Daily High	1811.91
Previous Daily Low	1784.55
Previous Weekly High	1841.05
Previous Weekly Low	1784.55
Previous Monthly High	1879.26
Previous Monthly Low	1802.79
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1801.46
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1795
Daily Pivot Point S1	1793.14
Daily Pivot Point S2	1775.17
Daily Pivot Point S3	1765.78
Daily Pivot Point R1	1820.5
Daily Pivot Point R2	1829.89
Daily Pivot Point R3	1847.86

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

GBP/USD struggles to reclaim 1.3300 ahead of Fed rate call

GBP/USD trades marginally lower on the day below 1.3300 following a short-lasting recovery attempt in the early European session. The pair finds it difficult to gain traction as the US Dollar stays resilient against its major rivals ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Meanwhile, renewed escalation in the Middle East and surging Oil prices weigh on market mood.

EUR/USD stays below 1.1400 ahead of Fed policy decision

EUR/USD oscillates in a narrow range below 1.1400 on Wednesday. The pair struggles to gain traction as the US Dollar benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere amid a deepening crisis in the Middle East. Investors keenly await the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision for fresh directional impetus.

Gold retreats toward $4,000 as focus shifts to FOMC

Gold stays on the back foot midweek and declines toward $4,000 after losing more than 1% on Tuesday. Escalating tensions in the Middle East make it difficult for the precious metal to hold its ground, while investors gear for the Federal Reserve's highly-anticipated interest rate announcement.

Bitcoin slips below support, Ethereum and XRP flash bearish signals

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple remain under pressure on Wednesday after a mild correction earlier this week. BTC slips below a key support zone, and ETH is testing a key resistance zone. Meanwhile, XRP is drifting toward the psychologically important $1.00 support level.

South Korean Won nears four-month highs despite the KOSPI index selloff

The South Korean Won (KRW) extends gains for the second consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD), and is set for a 6.5% monthly rally. Strong South Korean macroeconomic data and market expectations of monetary tightening by the Bank of Korea have offset the KOSPI Index’s sell-off.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.