Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD slips below $1,800, downside seems limited

  • Gold edged lower on Wednesday and eroded a part of the overnight gains to one-week tops.
  • The pullback could be attributed to technical selling near the very important 200-day SMA.
  • Sliding US bond yields, weaker USD, COVID-19 woes should help limit any meaningful slide. 
  • Gold Price Forecast: 200-DMA holds the key for XAU/USD bulls

Gold faded an early North American session bullish spike to the $1,806-07 region and dropped to fresh daily lows in the last hour, albeit lacked follow-through selling. The XAU/USD has now reversed a part of the previous day's post-US CPI positive move to one-week tops and was last seen trading just below the $1,800 round-figure mark.

The intraday downtick lacked any obvious fundamental catalyst and could be solely attributed to some technical selling near a technically significant 200-day SMA. That said, a combination of supporting factors might continue to act as a tailwind for the XAU/USD and help limit any deeper losses. Investors remain worried about the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus and a global economic slowdown. The market concerns were further fueled by disappointing Chinese macro data, which underscored recent signs of slackening economic momentum in the world's second-largest economy. This, in turn, boosted demand for traditional safe-haven assets and could lend some support to gold.

Meanwhile, signs of easing inflationary pressure in the US dampened prospects for an imminent Fed taper announcement at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 20-21. This was reinforced by some follow-through decline in the US Treasury bond yields, which might further benefit the non-yielding yellow metal. This, to a larger extent, overshadowed an unexpected jump in the Empire State Manufacturing Index – to 34.3 in September from the 18.3 previous – and kept the US dollar bulls on the defensive. This was seen as another factor that extended some support to dollar-denominated commodities, including gold, warranting caution for aggressive bearish traders.

Technical outlook


From a technical perspective, the overnight positive move confirmed a bullish breakout through a one-week-old trading range. However, failure near the very important 200-day SMA makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $1,808-10 region before positioning for any further appreciating move. The next relevant resistance is pegged near the $1,820-22 region ahead of the $1,832-34 heavy supply zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders.

On the flip side, any meaningful slide below the trading range breakpoint, around the $1,795 region, is likely to find decent support near the $1,784-83 horizontal zone. A convincing break below will negate the near-term positive outlook and shift the bias back in favour of bearish traders. The XAU/USD might then accelerate the slide towards the $1,750 level. The bearish trend could further get extended and drag gold towards the $1,729-28 area en-route of the $1,700 round figure.


Today last price 1798.18
Today Daily Change -6.22
Today Daily Change % -0.34
Today daily open 1804.4
Daily SMA20 1801.04
Daily SMA50 1798.43
Daily SMA100 1816.14
Daily SMA200 1809.09
Previous Daily High 1808.67
Previous Daily Low 1780.73
Previous Weekly High 1830.32
Previous Weekly Low 1782.47
Previous Monthly High 1831.81
Previous Monthly Low 1687.78
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1798
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1791.4
Daily Pivot Point S1 1787.2
Daily Pivot Point S2 1769.99
Daily Pivot Point S3 1759.26
Daily Pivot Point R1 1815.14
Daily Pivot Point R2 1825.87
Daily Pivot Point R3 1843.08



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

How do emotions affect trade?
Follow up our daily analysts guidance

Subscribe Today!    

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.1700 but the upside is limited

The EUR/USD pair flirted with 1.1750 but was unable to retain its modest intraday gains. Now trading in the 1.1720 price zone, bears retain control ahead of the US central bank monetary policy decision.


GBP/USD falls toward 1.3650 on fresh dollar strength

GBP/USD is retreating back toward 1.3650 as the dollar reasserts itself. Fears that the crisis in China's Evergrande could turn into a more significant downturn have resumed. Central bank decisions are awaited.


Gold: Further advances depend on the Fed

A better market mood put pressure on the American currency. The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Gold advanced for a second day in a row, but additional gains are in doubt.

Gold News

Shiba Inu bulls can't hold SHIB from dropping to $0.000006

Shiba Inu price has fallen -28% over the past four trading sessions. Bears remain in control as bulls fail to complete a breakout above $0.000008. Bulls must hold $0.000007 to prevent a drop towards $0.000006.

Read more

Fed Preview: Three ways in which Powell could down the dollar, and none is the dot-plot

No taper now, but when? That is the main question for the Fed in its all-important September meeting. The bank buys $120B worth of bonds every month and it is set to reduce the pace at some point – the first step toward raising interest rates. 

Read more