Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD needs to crack $1,763 to extend the downside – Confluence Detector


  • Gold price nurses losses after impressive US NFP-inspired sell-off.
  • US dollar eases in tandem with the Treasury yields amid a better mood.
  • XAU/USD looks south towards $1,750, as 75 bps Sept Fed rate hike bets rise.

Gold price is licking its wound below the $1,800 mark, awaiting a fresh catalyst for the next leg lower. Risk-on flows have returned at the start of the week, fuelling a broad-based US dollar retreat while the Treasury yields also ease. Investors assess the implications of a super-sized Fed rate next months, the odds for which now stand at 70% after a big upside surprise in the US Nonfarm Payrolls for July. The jobs blowout raised the stakes for the July US inflation report due on Wednesday. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) could likely see a slight pullback in headline growth but the core figure is seen accelerating. The debate of peak inflation remains in play heading into the key event risk of the week. The non-yielding bullion is expected to remain highly reactive to the US employment and inflation data after the Fed said that it remains data-dependent while deciding on its policy outlook.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD could challenge $1,750, with big Fed rate hike bets back in play

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price needs to slice through a bunch of healthy support levels around the $1,772-$1,771 area to resume the post-NFP sell-off.

That demand zone is the convergence of the SMA5 one-day, Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and the previous low four-hour.

The Fibonacci 61.8% one-week at $1,769 will be next on sellers’ radars. However, bears need acceptance below the confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month and pivot point one-day S1 at $1,763 to negate the recent bullish momentum.

Further south, the intersection of the previous week’s low and the pivot point one-week S1 at $1,754 will guard the downside.

On the upside, the immediate resistance appears at $1,775, above which the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week at %1,780 will be challenged.

The next resistance levels are located at $1,784 and $1,786, which are the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week respectively.

Here is how it looks on the tool

  fxsoriginal

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD drops back below 0.9700 as yields rebound ahead of US GDP, German inflation

EUR/USD drops back below 0.9700 as yields rebound ahead of US GDP, German inflation

EUR/USD sellers are up and roaring as sour sentiment joins firmer yields to renew the downside during early Thursday, after a day full of surprises and positive performance. Germany’s HICP may not impress pair buyers unless US GDP disappoints.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD turns sideways around 1.0800, focus shifts to US/UK GDP data

GBP/USD turns sideways around 1.0800, focus shifts to US/UK GDP data

GBP/USD is expected to resume its upside journey after concluding its correction to near 1.0800. To revive UK’s financial stability, the BOE announced a bond-buying program worth GBP 65 billion. Does BOE really not have the stomach to fight inflation while simultaneously keeping financial stability?

GBP/USD News

Gold sees cushion around $1,650 after a corrective move, US GDP buzz

Gold sees cushion around $1,650 after a corrective move, US GDP buzz

Gold price is experiencing a healthy correction in the Tokyo session after witnessing a bumper rally. The precious metal is expected to find significant bids around the immediate cushion of $1,650.00 as the downside bias is not backed by momentum. 

Gold News

XRP: A checklist for the next rally

XRP: A checklist for the next rally

XRP price has shown incredible buying pressure after a dip into the $0.381 to $0.433 demand zone. A recovery above $0.464 could ignite the next run-up, but ideally, a retest of $0.397 could be a good place to be a bull.

Read more

A week after Japanese yen intervention

A week after Japanese yen intervention

Last Thursday was an incredibly volatile trading session for the USD/JPY. This volatility was largely caused by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) intervention in the currency markets to defend its depreciating currency, the Japanese Yen. Last week’s move was the first time since 1998 that the BoJ had intervened.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures