Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes a break above $1,730 amid weaker consensus for US NFP

Gold prices are aiming to smash the 61.8% Fibo retracement at $1,734.58.
Fed’s soaring interest rates have trimmed employment generation opportunities.
The Average Hourly Earnings data is expected to decline by 10 bps to 5.1% on an annual basis.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) has witnessed a juggernaut rally after demolishing the psychological hurdle of $1,700.00. The precious metal is oscillating around Tuesday’s high at $1,729.00 and is expected to break the same with sheer confidence. The yellow metal has shifted into positive territory and is expected to continue its six-day winning streak after crossing the immediate hurdle of $1,730.00.

Weaker estimates for the US employment data are strengthening the gold prices. Escalating interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to combat the mounting inflation has trimmed employment opportunities. The corporate has left with no other option than to postpone the capacity expansion and investment plans to avoid higher interest obligations. This is resulting in a slowdown in the job creation process.

As per the expectations, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will decline to 250k vs. the prior release of 315k. The jobless rate is seen as stable at 3.7%. Apart from that, the Average Hourly Earnings data will remain in focus, which is expected to trim by 10 basis points (bps) to 5.1% on an annual basis.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) has slipped to near the psychological support of 110.00. The DXY will continue to remain on the tenterhooks amid a decline in the employment generation process.

Gold technical analysis

On a four-hour scale, gold prices are near to hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (placed from August 10 high at $1,807.93 to September low at $1,614.85) at $1,734.58. The upside momentum is extremely strong as the asset has crossed the 50-and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,674.30 and $1,695.80 respectively while the 50-EMA is still lower than the longer one.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has been established in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that bullish momentum has been activated.

Gold four-hour chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1725.24
Today Daily Change	25.40
Today Daily Change %	1.49
Today daily open	1699.84

Trends
Daily SMA20	1678.63
Daily SMA50	1724.57
Daily SMA100	1764.37
Daily SMA200	1824.06

Levels
Previous Daily High	1701.6
Previous Daily Low	1659.71
Previous Weekly High	1675.49
Previous Weekly Low	1614.85
Previous Monthly High	1735.17
Previous Monthly Low	1614.85
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1685.6
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1675.71
Daily Pivot Point S1	1672.5
Daily Pivot Point S2	1645.16
Daily Pivot Point S3	1630.61
Daily Pivot Point R1	1714.39
Daily Pivot Point R2	1728.94
Daily Pivot Point R3	1756.28

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin and Ethereum edge lower, XRP extends recovery as macro headwinds weigh

The broader cryptocurrency market is consolidating on Friday, with Bitcoin paring losses slightly above $84,000. Ethereum declines in tandem with BTC. Ripple (XRP), meanwhile, paints a different picture.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.