Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD continues its struggle below $1,850 as investors await FOMC minutes

Gold price is continuously attempting to surpass the critical resistance of $1,850.00.
The release of the US ISM PMI will trigger a power-pack action in the US Dollar Index.
A decline is expected in the volume of US ISM Manufacturing PMI data.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) has turned sideways around $1,844.00 in the early European session after surpassing the $1,840.00 hurdle. The precious metal continues its struggle for breaking above the crucial resistance of $1,850.00. The gold price is expected to display a decisive move after the release of United States ISM Manufacturing PMI data.

S&P500 futures have attempted a recovery move in the Asian session after a two-day sell-off but still need more filters for attracting a responsive buying action, portraying cautious optimism. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to sustain above the 104.20 hurdle, sensing pressure due to a fall in the 10-year US Treasury yields below 3.73%.

According to the estimates, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to deepen further to 48.5 from November’s release of 49.0. Shrinking manufacturing activities in the United States are expected to deliver signals of further downside in the inflation projections, which could compel the Federal Reserve (Fed) to a slowdown in the policy tightening measures. However, investors will get more clarity on the monetary policy outlook through Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which will release on Thursday.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price is displaying a sideways auction profile after a breakout of the horizontal resistance, which has turned into a support area for bulls around $1,824.00. Upward sloping 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,841.14 and $1,833.50 respectively indicate more upside ahead.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which signals that the bullish momentum has been triggered.

Gold hourly chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1846.46
Today Daily Change	8.30
Today Daily Change %	0.45
Today daily open	1838.16

Trends
Daily SMA20	1803.06
Daily SMA50	1757.02
Daily SMA100	1724.08
Daily SMA200	1779.26

Levels
Previous Daily High	1850.03
Previous Daily Low	1824.7
Previous Weekly High	1833.38
Previous Weekly Low	1797.11
Previous Monthly High	1833.38
Previous Monthly Low	1765.89
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1840.35
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1834.38
Daily Pivot Point S1	1825.23
Daily Pivot Point S2	1812.3
Daily Pivot Point S3	1799.9
Daily Pivot Point R1	1850.56
Daily Pivot Point R2	1862.96
Daily Pivot Point R3	1875.89

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

GBP/USD declines as market caution lifts US Dollar

GBP/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.3200 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair depreciated as the US Dollar gained momentum, driven by a combination of robust domestic economic data and a complex, mixed geopolitical landscape.

EUR/USD weakens below 1.1400 as Fed hike bets lift US Dollar

The EUR/USD pair trades on a negative note near 1.1380 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The major pair extends the decline as traders continue to assess the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal.

Gold retains bearish bias near two-week low as Fed hike bets support USD

Gold recovers slightly from a fresh two-week low, near $4,080 touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through. The US Dollar stands firm near its highest level since May 2025 amid firming expectations of a Fed rate hike, which, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding bullion. Furthermore, mixed US-Iran signals over Tehran's nuclear issues favor the USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the commodity remains to the downside.

Australia CPI set to show inflation accelerated again in May

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish the high-impact Consumer Price Index for May on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT. Heading into the inflation test, the Australian Dollar is at its lowest level in two months against the US Dollar, having surrendered the 0.7000 psychological mark.

"Rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic": UK's fiscal crisis outlasts another Prime Minister

Keir Starmer's resignation as the UK Prime Minister comes ten years after the Brexit referendum vote, a coincidence that financial markets have been quick to note. The British Pound trades around 1.3220 against the US Dollar on Thursday.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.