Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD fails to hold $2,080, slips back on US data concerns

Spot Gold bids eased back to near-term median prices after US data missed the mark.
Equities and commodities shed weight after US PMI figures flubbed expectations.
Money markets are beginning to walk back rate cut expectations.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

XAU/USD fell short of the $2,080 price level, reversing course and slipping back towards $2,050 as risk appetite soured on continuing misses in US economic data.

The US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December fell below investor expectations on Tuesday, slipping to a four-month low of 47.9 versus the forecast steady print of 48.2 from November.

Market appetite twisted on the data misprint, and investors are beginning to soften expectations of rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), with median market expectations pricing in around 150 basis points in rate cuts through the end of the year. This stands in sharp contrast to the Fed’s own dot plot of rate expectations, which currently see at most 75 basis points in rate cuts through 2024.

Market sentiment is set to roil this week as 2024’s first US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) print is slated for Friday. December’s NFP is expected to show US jobs additions easing back slightly from 199K to 168K.

NFP watchers will have to survive the midweek hump, with ISM Manufacturing and the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes releasing on Wednesday, followed by Thursday’s ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 29.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook

Intraday action in Spot Gold has the XAU/USD dipping into the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $2,060, with near-term bids capped off by the 50-hour SMA descending below $2,070.

On the daily candlesticks, XAU/USD remains on the high side, but the bottom is opening up as Gold bugs continue to struggle to hoist Spot Gold back into early December’s rally into all-time-highs near $2,140.

Prices remain well-bid above the 200-day SMA near $1,960, and the near-term price floor sits at the 50-day SMA just north of the $2,000 major price handle.

XAU/USD Hourly Chart

XAU/USD Daily Chart

XAU/USD Technical Levels

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	2058.59
Today Daily Change	-3.80
Today Daily Change %	-0.18
Today daily open	2062.39

Trends
Daily SMA20	2035.16
Daily SMA50	2008.04
Daily SMA100	1956.8
Daily SMA200	1961.25

Levels
Previous Daily High	2062.39
Previous Daily Low	2062.39
Previous Weekly High	2088.5
Previous Weekly Low	2052.98
Previous Monthly High	2144.48
Previous Monthly Low	1973.13
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	2062.39
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	2062.39
Daily Pivot Point S1	2062.39
Daily Pivot Point S2	2062.39
Daily Pivot Point S3	2062.39
Daily Pivot Point R1	2062.39
Daily Pivot Point R2	2062.39
Daily Pivot Point R3	2062.39

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

EUR/USD recovers further from one-month low set on Friday, eyes mid-1.1800s on weaker USD

The EUR/USD pair is seen building on Friday's late recovery from the 1.1750-1.1740 region, or a nearly one-month trough, and gaining some follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 1.1835 area during the Asian session and is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar.

GBP/USD gathers strength above 1.3500 amid tariff confusion

The GBP/USD pair gains traction to around 1.3520 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar faces some selling pressure against the Cable as tariff uncertainty lingers. Traders will take more cues from the US Producer Price Index report for January, which will be published later on Friday.

Gold rises to near $5,100 as Trump’s tariffs boost haven demand, US-Iran talks eyed

Gold price edges higher to near $5,095 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal extends the rally amid US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and uncertainty, boosting safe-haven flows.

Week ahead: Markets brace for heightened volatility as event risk dominates

Dollar strength dominates markets as risk appetite remains subdued. A Supreme Court ruling, geopolitics and Fed developments are in focus. Pivotal Nvidia earnings on Wednesday as investors question tech sector weakness. Yen and aussie diverge; both pound and euro could recoup their losses.

Liberation day take two, the tariff machine just changed gears

Let me caveat this from the outset. What we are watching is first-order mechanics, not the grand macro endgame. This is the market’s immediate reflex to a 15% Trump tariff levy dressed up as judicial drama. The Supreme Court blocked Trump tarrif hammer. The White House came back with a scalpel.

Ripple bulls defend key support amid waning retail demand and ETF inflows

XRP ticks up above $1.40 support, but waning retail demand suggests caution. XRP attracts $4 million in spot ETF inflows on Thursday, signaling renewed institutional investor interest.