|

Gold Price Analysis: Choppy conditions at critical levels

  • Gold is trapped on the daily time frame and traders are looking for a confirmation bias. 
  • The bulls are watching for a break of monthly resistance to confirm their bias.
  • Bears are yet to fully test the weekly support structure. 

As per the prior analysis, 'Gold Price Analysis: Bulls and bears battle it out at critical resistance,' the price has indeed found demand again and continues to be a battle between the bulls ad bears at a critical area across the time spectrum of the charts.

For instance, the monthly and weekly charts are somewhat conflicting, whereas the daily is more aligned with a bullish perspective.

The following illustrates that there is something for both the bulls and the bears to take away from a top-down analysis, although swing traders would be prudent to wait for confirmation biases in choppy price action.

Prior analysis, daily chart

Live market, daily chart

The price action is choppy, respecting support and resistance structures daily. 

The current ATR is relatively low, at $4.00, so there is not much prospect of more action in the price on Wednesday, although both the bulls and the bears need a confirmation bias in a break of support/resistance either way. 

Meanwhile, the picture is slightly jumbled by the modest test of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and prior resistance structure of the W-formation on the weekly chart.

Weekly chart

Bulls would have preferred to see a more aggressive attempt by the bears of the support structure prior to committing more bets on the upside.

The price can still easily return for another attempt at the support structure before an upside continuation.

That being said, there is every possibility that the support structure will not hold and give way to bears from a monthly perspective.

Monthly chart

Meanwhile, the monthly chart is bearish below a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the confluence of prior support, or bullish above it at this juncture.

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD gathers strength to near 1.3300; NFP data loom

The GBP/USD pair gains traction to near 1.3290 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound strengthens against the US Dollar as the UK's likely next Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has eased market concerns by pledging strict fiscal discipline. The US Nonfarm Payrolls data for June will take center stage later on Thursday.


EUR/USD approaches 1.1400 as bearish flag remains in play

The EUR/USD pair ticks higher during the Asian session though it lacks bullish conviction as traders keenly await the release of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1385 area and remain close to the weekly low, touched on Wednesday.

Gold trades with positive bias; Fed hike bets cap gains ahead of US NFP

Gold attracts fresh buyers during the Asian session, following the previous day's volatile price swings and a late pullback from an over one-week high. The US Dollar edges lower on the back of Wednesday's softer-than-expected US macro data and turns out to be a key factor supporting the commodity for the second consecutive day.

Ripple and Stellar build on recovery as traders turn cautiously bullish

Ripple and Stellar extend recovery as improving market sentiment supports a rebound. XRP trades above $1.05 while XLM climbs past $0.199. Traders should remain cautious, as mixed on-chain and derivatives data indicate a modest bullish bias, and further upside may depend on sustained buying momentum.

A preview of NFP

The number is of much greater importance than usual as the Fed moves away from a forecasting framework and towards a current-data/rebuilding-credibility framework.  While I have been pooh-poohing Warsh’s hawkish opener, I am also open to the idea that if he is serious about rebuilding credibility, he can find enough hawkish votes, and if June NFP is another hot one—July FOMC could be in play. 

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.