Analysts at Scotiabank explain that global growth is strengthening as policy stimulus in some advanced economies is unwound and this is a broadly-based global expansion: all 45 industrialized OECD countries are set to grow this year, the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.
“Price pressures remain muted, but signs of inflation are building in Canada and the US.”
“A Federal deficit of CAD 17 bn is expected this fiscal year, improving to CAD 16 bn by the next election.”
“Despite its recent strength, the USD is expected to weaken going forward, with currencies like the CAD appreciating significantly through the end of 2018.”
“A gradual increase in US and Canadian policy rates is expected, but the Canadian dollar will do some of the Bank of Canada’s work. More rapid rate hikes could be required if the loonie doesn't appreciate as we expect.”
“Geopolitical risks dominate. While there are economic risks that merit surveillance, potential developments in North Korea are of far greater concern.”
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