Han de Jong, chief economist at ABN AMRO, points out that Germany managed a 0.1% QoQ growth rate in Q3.
“The more positive trade data for September, released a week earlier, might have just eked out a positive for the quarter. No details have been released. It remains to be seen what happens next. The German economy is sensitive to world trade growth and investment spending world wide.”
“The trade conflict and the wait-and-see attitude of many companies around the world has therefore also had a negative impact. A phase 1 trade deal between the US and China would, therefore, also be positive for Germany.”
“The problems in the car industry haven’t helped either. German car production has fallen by some 15% in just over a year, reducing GDP by just over 0.5% of GDP.”
“A turn in car production could provide the German economy with a much needed and very welcome support.”
“Analysts are getting more optimistic, according to the ZEW indicators. To what extent these measures follow markets for risky assets isn’t clear to me, but it is remarkable that the ‘expectations’ series for the eurozone ZEW index jumped sharply in November: -1.0, versus -23.5 in October. This could be a sign that the business cycle is starting to bottom out, or at least that the analysts surveyed think so.”
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