FX Today: The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The US Dollar (USD) extended its march north, retesting new three-month highs as investors continued to assess the post-FOMC scenario and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve might hold its hand in December. On another page, there was no news surrounding a potential deal to end the ongoing federal government shutdown.

Here’s what to watch on Tuesday, November 4:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced for the fourth consecutive day, hitting new multi-week tops and faltering just pips away from the psychological 100.00 hurdle. The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is next on tap, ahead of the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The Fed’s Bowman is also due to speak.

EUR/USD extended its decline and traded at shouting distance of the key 1.1500 neighbourhood for the first time since August. The ECB’s Lagarde will speak, while Germany’s Factory Orders, seconded by the final HCOB Services PMI in Germany and the Euroland, and Producer Prices in the broader bloc are all expected on November 5.

GBP/USD remained on the defensive, trading in the area of seven-month lows near 1.3100 amid the continuation of the uptrend in the Greenback and domestic fiscal concerns. The final S&P Global Services PMI will be released on November 5..

USD/JPY alternated gains with losses in the upper end of its current range near 154.00. The BoJ will publish its Minutes in what will be the sole event on the Japanese calendar.

AUD/USD clinched its fourth consecutive day of losses, coming closer to the 0.6520 level, or multi-day lows. The RBA is widely expected to keep its OCR unchaged, while other data releases will feature the Ai Group Industry Index.

WTI came under pressure, breaking below the $61.00 mark per barrel as traders continued to evaluate the OPEC+’s plans to pause output hikes.

Gold picked up some traction and advanced beyond the $4,000 mark per troy ounce, recovering part of last week’s intense pullback. Silver prices, retreated modestly, adding to Friday’s losses near the $48.00 mark per ounce.

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold holds above $4,000/three-month low as Fed hike bets and firm USD cap upside

Gold struggles to capitalize on its modest recovery from levels below the $4,000 psychological mark, or a three-month low set earlier this Friday, and retains a bearish tone through the first half of the European session. Federal Reserve officials recently signaled there is no urgency to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

US S&P Global PMI expected to show moderating business activity in October

The United States S&P Global preliminary Purchasing Managers Indices for October will be released on Friday, providing fresh insights into the health of the world's largest economy ahead of next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The report includes the Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Composite PMI, which measure business activity across the private sector.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.