Forex Today: Yuan sold-off as trade war fears heightened, a light session ahead


Trade war fears intensified in Asia this Friday, which eventually turned into a currency-war, with the Yuan accelerating its declines versus its American peer. USD/CNY jumped to fresh one-year highs at 6.8117, before retreating below the 6.8 handle amid reports of intervention. The Indian Rupee headed towards the record low of 69.24/ US dollar while the Antipodeans, proxies for the Chinese economy, also felt the heat of the Yuan sell-off. However, the Antipodeans staged a solid comeback towards Asia closing, as the US dollar stalled its pullback from the Trump-led selloff.

Meanwhile, the Yen advanced further versus the greenback and looks to test the 112 level, as markets cheer uptick in the Japanese national core CPI figures while negative Asian equities also spurred the demand for the safe-haven currency. Gold prices on Comex attempted a bounce above $ 1220 levels while both crude benchmarks stabilized, but remained on track for their third weekly loss.

Main topics in Asia

German Finance Ministry sees threats to economic growth on the rise

Germany's Finance Ministry has released their July monthly report, and the ministerial group has highlighted that growing threats from protectionism and Brexit are set to hamper growth looking forward.

EU, Mexico auto makers slam Trump's autos tariffs plan - Reuters

According to Reuters, The Trump administration came under fire on Thursday from foreign automobile companies as the US considers its options on imposing a hefty 25% tariff on foreign autos.

PBOC devalues Yuan by most since June 2016

A weaker Yuan is China's answer to Trump's trade war. 

USD/CNY hits fresh one-year high above 6.80 as trade war turns into currency war

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is increasingly favoring a weaker currency as it would help the economy absorb shocks from trade war with the US.

Major state-owned Chinese banks intervened in Yuan market

As the Chinese Yuan extends the sell-off versus its American counterpart, traders are reporting about the intervention by the state-owned banks.

USD/INR Technical Analysis: Hourly chart favors a minor pullback

USD/INR could be in for a minor pullback, having closed above 69.00 for the first time ever.

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, we have a thin showing on the macroeconomic front on the final trading day of this week. In absence of the first-tier economic releases, the German PPI and Eurozone current account data will keep the EUR, GBP traders busy ahead of the UK public sector net borrowing data due at 0830 GMT.

The NA session is likely to be eventful, with the inflation and retail sales reports slated for release from Canada. Meanwhile, the US docket remains data-empty and hence, the broader market sentiment amid ongoing trade war concerns will continue to drive the fx markets.

Markets look forward to the Bakers Hughes US oil rigs count data due later at 1700 GMT for fresh direction on oil prices.

EUR/USD: Indecisive market amid rising fears of currency wars

No first tier data are scheduled for release in Europe and US, hence, the pair is at the mercy of the broader market sentiment

GBP/USD cycling around 1.30 after Thursday's last-minute bounce does little to buck the trend

This week has been a poor run for the GBP/USD, which is struggling to hang onto the 1.3000 major handle heading into the brunt of Friday's trading.

Canadian double-feature Friday preview: Contradicting expectations lay the ground for a choppy reaction

Canadian Inflation figures for June and Retail Sales for May are published simultaneously on Friday, July 20th, at 12:30 GMT. There are no parallel US publications, leaving the stage for these figures to move the USD/CAD.

US dollar to weaken in ‘coming weeks’ – Morgan Stanley

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their outlook on the G10 currencies, centered on the Euro, US dollar, Yen and Yuan, in its latest client note released on Friday.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Jul 19
23:30
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
23:30
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
23:50
¥-5.6B
 
¥818.9B Revised from ¥817.9B
23:50
¥601.4B
 
¥76.0B Revised from ¥74.3B
Friday, Jul 20
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
03:00
5.7%
 
3.7%
04:30
0.1%
0.0%
1.0%
04:30
23
 
23
04:30
1.9%
 
2.9% Revised from 3.0%
06:00
 
2.9%
2.7%
06:00
 
0.3%
0.5%
07:00
 
 
12.6%
08:00
 
 
7.6%
08:00
 
 
€26.2B
08:00
 
€27.2B
€28.4B
08:30
 
£3.500B
£3.356B
09:00
 
 
5.4%
11:30
 
 
$405.81B
12:00
 
 
1.11%
n/a
 
0.3%
0.2%
12:30
 
0.5%
-0.1%
12:30
 
0.0%
-1.2%
12:30
 
0.1%
0.1%
12:30
 
0.3%
-0.1%
12:30
 
2.4%
2.2%
12:30
 
0.3%
-0.1%
12:30
 
1.4%
1.3%
13:00
 
 
3.2%
13:00
 
 
3.2%
13:00
 
 
-3
17:00
 
 
863
19:30
 
 
654.5K
19:30
 
 
$81.4K
19:30
 
 
$172K
19:30
 
 
£-40.4K
19:30
 
 
¥-39.8K
19:30
 
 
€24.4K
19:30
 
 
$-41K
Saturday, Jul 21
00:00
 
 
Monday, Jul 23
05:00
 
 
0.4
06:00
 
 
10.6
07:00
 
 
70.3
08:30
 
 
€-1.344B
08:30
 
 
2.1%
09:00
 
 
0.6%
09:00
 
 
2.6%
n/a
 
 
10:00
 
 
0.1%
10:00
 
 
4.3%
12:00
 
 
5.7%
12:30
 
 
-0.15
12:30
 
 
0.1%
14:00
 
5.49M
5.43M
14:00
 
1.5%
-0.4%
14:00
 
 
-0.5
15:30
 
 
1.98%
15:30
 
 
2.14%
Tuesday, Jul 24
00:30
 
 
53
05:00
 
106.9
106.9
05:00
 
116.1
116.1
06:00
 
 
4.9%
06:00
 
 
7.6%
06:45
 
 
110
07:00
 
54.3
55.9
07:00
 
53.9
52.5
07:00
 
54.2
55.0
07:30
 
53.4
54.8
07:30
 
 
54.5
07:30
 
56.2
55.9
08:00
 
 
€2.37B
08:00
 
 
6.1%
08:00
 
55.0
54.9
08:00
 
53.7
55.2
08:00
 
53.9
54.9
10:00
 
 
13
11:00
 
 
17.75%
12:00
 
 
0.9%
12:55
 
 
3.3%
12:55
 
 
0.1%
13:00
 
 
0.1%
13:45
 
55.5
55.4
13:45
 
 
56.2
13:45
 
56.3
56.5
14:00
 
 
20
14:00
 
 
0.13%
14:00
 
 
0.08%
15:30
 
 
1.88%
17:00
 
 
2.538%
20:30
 
 
0.629M
21:00
 
 
106
22:00
 
 
2.5%
22:45
 
 
$294M
22:45
 
 
$5.42B
22:45
 
 
$-3.6B
22:45
 
 
$5.12B
Wednesday, Jul 25
01:30
 
 
0.5%
01:30
 
 
1.9%
01:30
 
 
0.4%
01:30
 
 
1.9%
06:00
 
 
2
06:45
 
 
0.6%
07:00
 
 
3.7%
07:30
 
 
6.3%
07:30
 
 
1.4%
08:00
 
 
101.8
08:00
 
 
105.1
08:00
 
 
98.6
08:00
 
 
2.9%
08:00
 
 
3.9%
08:00
 
3.8%
4.0%
08:00
 
 
8
08:30
 
 
39.244K
10:00
 
 
32%
11:00
 
 
-2.5%
11:30
 
 
104.6
11:30
 
 
78.3%
13:00
 
 
-1.1%
13:00
 
 
3.3%
13:00
 
 
0.6
13:30
 
 
$0.729B
14:00
 
 
0.689M
14:00
 
0.7%
6.7%
14:30
 
 
5.836M
17:00
 
 
2.719%
19:00
 
 
$-1M
23:00
 
 
2.8%
23:00
 
 
1%
23:50
 
 
¥-5.6B
23:50
 
 
¥601.4B
Thursday, Jul 26
01:30
 
 
4.9%
01:30
 
 
2.1%
02:30
 
 
2%
05:00
 
 
11.1%
05:00
 
 
0.4%
06:00
 
10.6
10.7
06:00
 
 
3.9%
06:45
 
 
97
07:00
 
 
90.4
07:00
 
 
16.74%
07:00
 
 
3.7%
07:30
 
 
6.5%
08:00
 
 
106.9
08:00
 
 
116.2
08:00
 
 
96.8
n/a
 
 
0.336%
n/a
 
 
1.406%
09:30
 
 
4.6%
09:30
 
 
0.7%
n/a
0.67%
 
0.90%
11:45
 
 
-0.4%
11:45
 
 
0%
12:30
 
 
1.751M
12:30
 
 
207K
12:30
 
 
0.6%
12:30
 
 
$-64.85B
12:30
 
1.1%
-0.6%
12:30
 
0.3%
-0.3%
12:30
 
 
13:00
 
 
$460.3B
14:30
 
 
46B
15:00
 
 
38
17:00
 
 
2.809%
23:30
 
 
0.6%
23:30
 
0.6%
0.7%
23:30
 
 
0.4%
Friday, Jul 27
01:30
 
 
0.5%
01:30
 
 
1.7%

 

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