Forex Today: USD softer on Fed minutes, all eyes on OPEC meeting

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

A quiet Asian-affair, as dust settled over the FOMC minutes aftermath, while risk-on moods persisted amid higher stocks and oil prices. The greenback extended the overnight sell-off versus its main peers, as shorter-duration treasury yields remained sold-off into cautious FOMC minutes. As a result, most major currencies extended the rebound, although upside lacked follow-through amid increased nervousness ahead of the OPEC meeting scheduled later today.

Looking ahead, most major European markets are closed in observance of Ascension Day, and hence thin liquidity and irregular volatility will persist. Calendar-wise, the second estimate of Q1 UK GDP will be reported alongside prelim business investment data. Meanwhile, in the NA session, the US usual weekly jobless claims, good trade balance and FOCM member Brainard’s speech will remain in focus. However, the main market moving event for today remains the OPEC Vienna meeting on oil output cut deal extension.

Main topics in Asia

Fed’s Kaplan: Should unwind balance sheet in a way that minimises impact

Comments from Fed’s Kaplan crossing the wires via Bloomberg and Reuters – The Fed should unwind the balance sheet in a way that minimises impact.

Fed's Evans - below target US inflation is "a series policy outcome miss"

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, while speaking in Tokyo, said the below-target US inflation is "a serious policy outcome miss".

NZ Budget: Govt expects a bigger-than forecast budget surplus in 2017

New Zealand (NZ) Treasury is out with the Annual Budget release, outlining the government's budget for the year, presented in parliament by the finance minister.

BOJ’s Sakurai: Main priority is to control yields

Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Makoto Sakurai is back on wires now, via Reuters, noting the following:

Key Focus ahead

GBP/USD: Bulls eyeing a test of 1.3000 ahead of UK GDP

The overnight recovery in GBP/USD found extra legs in mid-Asia, now pushing the rate further towards 1.30 handle.

OPEC preview: Will oil prices rise above $60/barrel?

Oil prices traded on the front foot in Asia on expectations the major oil producers will extend the output cut deal.

Loonie Poised to Bounce Back as the Week Closes

The Loonie has been under fire recently but things could be about to improve for the embattled pair in the session to come.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, May 25
08:00	AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals	40.8K	41.1K
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.3%	0.3%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	2.1%	2.1%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (YoY)		-0.9%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ)	0.2%	-0.9%
08:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)	0.3%	0.5%
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims	238K	232K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims	1.925M	1.898M
12:30	USD Wholesale Inventories	0.2%	0.2%
12:30	USD Goods Trade Balance	$-64.7B	$-65.0B
14:00	USD FOMC Member Brainard Speech
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change		68B
15:00	USD Kansas Fed manufacturing activity		12
17:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction		2.084%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)	0.0%	-0.1%
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)		-0.1%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)		-0.1%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)		-0.1%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)	0.4%	0.2%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)	0.4%	0.2%
23:50	JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)	0.9%	0.8%
Friday, May 26
24h	EUR G7 Meeting
06:45	USD Fed's Bullard speech
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index	2.2%	2.2%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

GBP/USD holds range near 1.3500 after UK Q2 GDP

GBP/USD keeps its range near the 1.3500 psychological mark in the European session on Thursday. The mixed UK GDP and industrial data failed to inspire the British Pound. Meanwhile, the US Dollar stabilizes after the US CPI data-led sell-off, checking any upside attempts in the pair.

EUR/USD flatlines above 1.1500 as US Dollar stablizes ahead of PPI

EUR/USD is trading modestly flat above 1.1500 in European trading hours on Thursday. The pair stalls its rebound as the US Dollar consolidates losses incurred after the release of July's Consumer Price Index report. Inflation in the US moderated across a broad range of goods and services, cooling expectations for an aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike in September and weighing on the Greenback. The US PPI data is next in focus.

Gold weakens further below $4,400 as USD sticks to gains amid Fed bets, Iran tensions

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XRP holds at make-or-break level, ADA and SOL risk 50-day EMA breakout

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Gold has priced a Fed pause. The hike is still coming

July inflation landed exactly where the consensus had it, on all four lines of the release, and Gold responded by adding around 1% and holding fast near $4,400/ounce, trading at its highest since early June. A print that surprises nobody is not supposed to move a metal that far.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.