Forex Today: US economic data supports the Dollar, more inflation data ahead

On Friday, the Asian session will be highlighted by Japanese inflation data and the official Chinese PMI. In addition, Japan will also report the Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and Housing Starts, while Australia is set to release the Price Sector Credit. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is also due. Later in the day, the Eurozone CPI and the US Core PCE will gather market attention.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 30:

The US Dollar Index posted its highest daily close in two weeks, above 103.30, boosted by robust US data that keeps alive expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Initial Jobless Claims dropped more than expected to 239K, the lowest in four weeks, and Q1 GDP growth figures were revised significantly higher from an annual rate of 1.3% to 2%. Usually, GDP numbers in the third reading are revised by one or two decimals; it was not the case and was completely unexpected. The positive numbers were mostly received positively on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones advancing 0.80% while the Nasdaq finished flat.

On Friday, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index will be released. It is a key inflation number, expected to remain at 4.7% YoY. These numbers will be closely watched and could impact Fed rate hike expectations. The recent round of US data has increased the likelihood of a rate hike at the July meeting, according to market pricing. 

During the Asian session, China will release the June Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to remain under 50, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI is seen slowing from 54.5 to 50.8.

EUR/USD posted its lowest close in two weeks, under 1.0900. The pair dropped for the second day in a row, approaching the 20-day Simple Moving Average, on the back of a stronger US Dollar. German inflation rebounded as expected. On Friday, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index is due, while Germany will report May Retail Sales and the Unemployment rate.

Commerzbank on German inflation: 

The June figures only interrupt the downward trend in the inflation rate and do not mark its end. Both the overall rate and the core rate will trend downward in the coming months, but the core rate in particular will probably remain significantly above the ECB target of 2% for an extended period of time.

GBP/USD extended its decline and traded below 1.2600, closing under the 20-day SMA. A new estimate of UK Q1 GDP will be released on Friday. Despite firm tightening expectations from the Bank of England, they are offering no support to the Pound.

USD/JPY jumped with positive US economic data towards 145.00, continuing its move higher. Positive data from Japan, including a 1.3% increase in May Retail Sales, did not help the Yen.  With the Bank of Japan signaling no pivot in the short term from its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, the USD/JPY could continue to rally, triggering more comments about currency moves from Japanese officials. During the Asian session, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, and Unemployment Rate are due.

The Australian Dollar outperformed on Thursday, supported by better-than-expected Australian Retail Sales data, which partially offset soft Consumer Price Index numbers. On Friday, Australia will report Private Sector Credit. AUD/USD rebounded modestly after being able to hold above 0.6600.

USD/CAD finished flat on Thursday, around 1.3250. The rally faced resistance at the 20-day SMA and pulled back. April's GDP data from Canada is due on Friday.

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