Forex today: U.S. benchmarks end with record closes, dollar volatile into 4th July holiday

Forex on Wednesday, for the U.S. session, was witnessing traders heading out the door for the 4th July holidays, although stocks rallied with the benchmarks ending with closing highs as markets get set for a dismal Nonfarm Payrolls to result to force the hand of the Federal Reserve this week and confirm the beginnings of a new easing cycle, to blow some hot air into the deflating bubble again. 

However, there was plenty to be concerned about considering the increasing likelihood of Washington going head-on with Tehran as both sides enter into daily antagonistic verbal conflict. Following Iran’s president saying that Tehran will increase its enrichment of uranium to “any amount that we want” beginning on Sunday, Trump's war-like rhetoric picked up today. He told Iran that threats `Can Come Back To Bite' ... "Iran has just issued a New Warning. Rouhani says that they will Enrich Uranium to “any amount we want” if there is no new Nuclear Deal. Be careful with the threats, Iran. They can come back to bite you like nobody has been bitten before!"

President Trump also fanned the flames of the currency wars, saying “China and Europe playing big currency manipulation game and pumping money into their system in order to compete with USA. We should MATCH, or continue being the dummies who sit back and politely watch as other countries continue to play their games - as they have for many years!”

As for data, with nonfarm Payrolls around the corner, it was all eyes on US private payrolls that rebounded in the June ADP jobs report. The employment change showed a further 102,000 workers hired but came in below expectations of 140,000 with the small businesses and the manufacturing sector struggling. The service sector ISM also fell more than expected in June, to 55.1 from 56.9, a two-year low, though both the new orders and employment sub-indices remain comfortably above 50. The US May trade deficit widened more than expected, to -$55.5bn from -$51.2bn and factory orders were revised down to show a steeper -0.7% fall in May.

Meanwhile, the greenback was trading between a 30 pip range in the DXY as US 2-year treasury yields jumped off 1.73% to 1.76% as stocks rallied. The 10-year yields dropped from 1.97% to 1.94% and to the lowest since 2016, weighing on the Dollar into an early session closed with markets pricing 33basis points of easing at the July meeting, with a total of four cuts priced by mid-2020.

As for currency price action, on the currency war comments, EUR/USD initially moved up to 1.1312  before falling back to 1.1280 and starting position for the day. The CNH has shown no response so far although USD/JPY moved higher to 107.80. Despite the RBA's tip of the hat to further rate cuts to follow two consecutive meetings of rate cuts, the Aussie was the best performer and climbed from to 0.7039 which was a two-month high. NZD/USD also performed well, rising from 0.6680 to 0.6720. GBP/USD was lower again as Brexit uncertainty remains a key obstacle for business optimism which showed through UK’s June CIPS/Markit PMI that disappointed. 

Key notes from Wall Street

• Wall Street ended with record closes as markets price in Fed cuts