Forex Today: Sentiment sours, dollar recovers

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

What you need to take care of on Wednesday, November 16:

It was another volatile day in the FX sphere, with optimism and fears mixing throughout the day. The American Dollar plummeted to fresh monthly lows against most major rivals ahead of Wall Street’s opening but posted a nice comeback ahead of the close.

Modest concerns surged at the beginning of the day following tepid Chinese data. According to official sources, Industrial Production grew by 5% YoY in October, missing the market expectation for an expansion of 5.2%. Also, Retail Sales contracted by 0.5% in the same period, worse than the 1% advance anticipated.

The market sentiment improved following the release of the US Producer Price Index as it rose by 8% YoY, improving from the previous 8.4%.

The mood changed following news that Russian missiles hit Poland, killing at least two people. Missiles landed in the Polish village of Przewodów, near the border with Ukraine, and the government called an emergency meeting. Worth remembering Poland is a NATO member, and things could escalate fast. Some Poland sources suggest it is most likely the remains of a Russian rocket shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The EURUSD peaked at 1.0480, then fell to 1.0292. It currently trades at around 1.0320. GBPUSD hovers around 1.1830 after surging to 1.2028. UK-employment-related data was generally disappointing. The ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 3.6% in September, while wage inflation rose in October. The country will publish the October Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.

Commodity-linked currencies ended the day with modest gains vs their American rival, with AUDUSD trading at around 0.6750 and USDCAD surrounding 1.3300. Save-have currencies remained under pressure, with USDCHF now trading at 0.9450 and USDJPY at 139.40.

Gold extended its monthly rally but ended Tuesday with modest gains at around $1,776 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices rallied with Russian-Ukraine news, and WTI settled at around $86.80 a barrel.

Former US President Donald Trump said he would do an announcement at his house at Mar-a-Lago tonight. Market players anticipate he will announce he will run for President again in 2024.

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

GBP/USD remains slightly bid near 1.3300

GBP/USD now advances marginally and manages to dispute the 1.3300 region on Tuesday. Indeed, Cable regains some balance on the back of the lacklustre performance of the Greenback, all preceding the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday and the BoE’s gathering on Thursday.

EUR/USD recedes from tops, back below 1.1400

EUR/USD manages to set aside part of the recent weakness and clinches decent gains on Tuesday. Indeed, spot keeps the trade below the 1.1400 mark amid acceptable losses in the US Dollar, all following rising optimism of a US-Iran deal and steady caution prior to the FOMC gathering on Wednesday.

Gold bounces on poor US data

Gold remains under marked downside pressure on Tuesday, although the $4,000 zone per troy ounce emerges as a decent support for now. The precious metal’s pullback comes despite the modest losses in the US Dollar in a context of easing geopolitical tensions ahead of the key Fed event on Wednesday.

Australia CPI could boost Aussie if inflation arrives above 4%

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish the June Consumer Price Index on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that inflation rose 4% from a year earlier, matching the May reading. The monthly CPI is foreseen at 0.2% following the -0.7% print from May. The ABS will also release the Trimmed Mean CPI, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s favorite inflation gauge.

Indian Rupee outlook: Downtrend set to persist – Just at a slower pace

The Indian Rupee just endured its most brutal six-month stretch in years, battered by a perfect storm of global shocks. From United States-India trade uncertainty to surging Oil prices and the significant outflow of Foreign Institutional Investment from the Indian stock market, every event brought nothing but pain for the Indian currency.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.