Forex Today: RBA’s status-quo powers Aussie; focus on UK PMI, trade


Tuesday’s Asian session was a mixed bag, as a sense of caution prevailed amid renewed trade concerns. Asian stocks slipped following the overnight Wall Street decline after US President Trump announced fresh tariffs on steel from Brazil and Argentina. 

The US dollar embarked upon the road to recovery vs. its main competitors but remained miserable against the Antipodeans. The Aussie rallied to three-week highs near 0.6850 after Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) announced no change to its Official Cash Rate (OCR). The Kiwi tracked the Aussie’s rally and regained the 0.65 handle.

The USD/JPY pair benefited from broad dollar recovery, an uptick in S&P 500 futures and the Treasury yields rebound. The spot kept its range around 109.15 region, reversing a dip to four-day lows of 108.93. The Canadian dollar attempted a tepid recovery and sent USD/CAD back in the red zone near 1.3300. Moderate gains in oil prices also aided CAD recovery.

Amongst the European currencies, EUR/USD consolidated the recent upsurge near 1.1070 levels while GBP/USD traded little changed below 1.2950 ahead of the UK Construction PMI release.

Main Topics in Asia

Interest rates and quantitative tightening wrong from the first days of Jay Powell - Trump

US Pres. Trump: Fed should lower rates, dollar is very strong

Japan govt considering 25 trillion yen economic stimulus package - NHK

Japanese Economic Minister, Nishimura: Consumption is still at a low level

Australia: Back to back current account surplus – Westpac

BOJ’s Kuroda: Important to strike the right balance between growth and fiscal discipline

China may ban all US diplomatic passport-holders from Xinjiang - Global Times

Asian stocks drop on trade concerns, potential double top on Nikkei

RBA leaves rate unchanged at 0.75%

RBA: Rates to remain low for extended period

Japan PM Abe: Japan is in the final stages of preparing economic stimulus package

N. Korean ForeignMin: Up to the US what Christmas gift it will select to get - KCNA

Key Focus Ahead

The EUR macro calendar this Tuesday is a thin-showing, in absence of first-tier economic data releases. Therefore, the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI), UK Construction PMI and Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) will keep the traders busy in the session ahead. Meanwhile, the UK political drama and trade-related headlines will continue to play out.

The NA session also lacks relevant macro news from both the US and Canada. However, New Zealand’s fortnightly dairy auction results (due around 1430 GMT), ECB Governing Council member Coeure’s speech and weekly US Crude Stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be closely eyed.

EUR/USD logs biggest single-day rise since Sept. 17

EUR/USD printed the biggest single-day gain in 2.5-months on Monday.  The uptick has neutralized the immediate bearish setup. A breakout, however, may remain elusive due to the US-France trade tensions. 

GBP/USD stops further recovery ahead of UK construction PMI

GBP/USD registers losses for the first time in five days. Polls show receding leads of Tories over Labour. US President Trump’s London visit, British activity numbers will join trade/political headlines to offer a busy day.

USD/INR Technical Analysis: Wednesday's close pivotal

USD/INR created an inside day candlestick pattern on Monday, signaling indecision in the market place. The candlestick pattern has weakened the immediate bullish view put forward by Friday's falling channel breakout. 

Three UK Election Projections, Raw Numbers and Seat by Seat

YouGov projects a Conservative majority of 68, Electoral Calculus 34, and a model of ComRes data yields 48. The YouGov Election Centre updates its model periodically. 

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Nov 28
24h
 
 
Tuesday, Dec 03
07:30
 
-0.1%
-0.3%
07:30
 
-0.1%
-0.2%
09:30
 
44.5
44.2
10:00
 
-1.9%
-1.2%
10:00
 
0.0%
0.1%
n/a
 
 
0.735%
13:55
 
 
-0.4%
13:55
 
 
4.3%
n/a
 
0.5%
1.7%
14:45
 
44.7
47.7
16:30
 
 
1.565%
17:30
 
 
20:30
 
 
16.6M
21:30
 
 
3.639M
21:30
 
 
54.2
22:00
 
 
49.5
22:00
 
49.5
49.5
Wednesday, Dec 04
00:00
 
1.6%
1.2%
24h
 
 
00:30
 
50.4
49.7
00:30
 
0.5%
0.5%
00:30
 
1.7%
1.4%
01:45
 
52.7
51.1
08:55
 
49.2
49.2
08:55
 
51.3
51.3

 

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