YouGov projects a Conservative majority of 68, Electoral Calculus 34, and a model of ComRes data yields 48.

Electoral Calculus has a nice User-Defined Election Projection Tool. For the above chart, I used the Electoral Calculus current model.

Electoral Calculus Seat Change Projections

Labour does not pick up any seats in the Electoral Calculus model. It projects a 34 seat Tory majority.

Note that Electoral Calculus projects Dominic Raab will lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats.

ComRes Projection

ComRes does not offer any projections but it does have region-by-region totals that I used to feed Electoral Calculus.

Electoral Calculus Projection From ComRes Data

Electoral Calculus Seat Change Projection From ComRes Data

This model projects Labour will pick up one seat from Plaid Cymru while losing 40 seats elsewhere.

This model also shows Tories doing better in Scotland than most believe. I suspect that will be the actual case based on falling poll numbers of SNP.

YouGov Analysis

The YouGov Election Centre updates its model periodically. It provides a seat-by-set CSV-file download which I took then added some cross-check calculations.

It is not easy to see on the raw YouGov CSV file which party won. I added a set of columns to show which party won each seat.

You can download my summation of their data from my Google Drive UK Seat by Seat Projection File.

There were 8 ties. I cannot tell from the CSV file which party won the ties other than Tories 2, Labour 4, and Liberal Democrats 2.


  • YouGov Nov 19-26: Tory 68 Seat Majority
  • Electoral Calculus Nov 26-30: Tory 32 Seat Majority
  • ComRes Data Modeled by Electoral Calculus Nov 27-28: Tory 48 Seat Majority
  • Average: 49

I believe the average is about right.

This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains sub-1.2100 after upbeat US data

US Producer Prices rose by more than anticipated, while unemployment claims shrank by more than anticipated. EUR/USD keeps trading below 1.2100 as investors eye firmer government bond yields.


GBP/USD under pressure below 1.4050 amid renewed USD demand

GBP/USD trades pressured below 1.4050, as the US dollar remains broadly bid amid risk-off sentiment. Rising inflationary pressures and Brexit jitters over NI keep investors on the edge. Bailey's speech, US data in focus.


XAU/USD bounces off weekly lows, lacks follow-through buying

Gold consolidates the heaviest losses in six weeks, fades consolidative bounce of late. Market’s struggle for clear direction after US CPI challenged Fed, US stimulus. Wall Street benchmarks dropped over 2.0%, down for third day, but S&P 500 Futures prints 0.10% gains afterward.

Gold News

Nightmares repeat as BTC flash crashes

The recent Bitcoin price crash seen on Wednesday is comparable to the one in late April. However, unlike the last time, this drop was not due to rumors of new tax proposals. 

Read more

S&P 500 Nasdaq: PPI confirms the CPI, Fed is in bed as inflation means red

Wednesday's wake-up call to the dovish Fed was repeated with the release of PPI on Thursday. Core CPI was 0.7% versus forecasts for 0.4%. Now is buy the dip still in focus and is don't fight the Fed still the trade? 

Read more