Three UK Election Projections, Raw Numbers and Seat by Seat

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

YouGov projects a Conservative majority of 68, Electoral Calculus 34, and a model of ComRes data yields 48.

Electoral Calculus has a nice User-Defined Election Projection Tool. For the above chart, I used the Electoral Calculus current model.

Electoral Calculus Seat Change Projections

Labour does not pick up any seats in the Electoral Calculus model. It projects a 34 seat Tory majority.

Note that Electoral Calculus projects Dominic Raab will lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats.

ComRes Projection

ComRes does not offer any projections but it does have region-by-region totals that I used to feed Electoral Calculus.

Electoral Calculus Projection From ComRes Data

Electoral Calculus Seat Change Projection From ComRes Data

This model projects Labour will pick up one seat from Plaid Cymru while losing 40 seats elsewhere.

This model also shows Tories doing better in Scotland than most believe. I suspect that will be the actual case based on falling poll numbers of SNP.

YouGov Analysis

The YouGov Election Centre updates its model periodically. It provides a seat-by-set CSV-file download which I took then added some cross-check calculations.

It is not easy to see on the raw YouGov CSV file which party won. I added a set of columns to show which party won each seat.

You can download my summation of their data from my Google Drive UK Seat by Seat Projection File.

There were 8 ties. I cannot tell from the CSV file which party won the ties other than Tories 2, Labour 4, and Liberal Democrats 2.

Results

YouGov Nov 19-26: Tory 68 Seat Majority
Electoral Calculus Nov 26-30: Tory 32 Seat Majority
ComRes Data Modeled by Electoral Calculus Nov 27-28: Tory 48 Seat Majority
Average: 49

I believe the average is about right.

Author

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's

Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor for SitkaPacific Capital Management.

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