YouGov projects a Conservative majority of 68, Electoral Calculus 34, and a model of ComRes data yields 48.

Electoral Calculus has a nice User-Defined Election Projection Tool. For the above chart, I used the Electoral Calculus current model.

Electoral Calculus Seat Change Projections

Labour does not pick up any seats in the Electoral Calculus model. It projects a 34 seat Tory majority.

Note that Electoral Calculus projects Dominic Raab will lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats.

ComRes Projection

ComRes does not offer any projections but it does have region-by-region totals that I used to feed Electoral Calculus.

Electoral Calculus Projection From ComRes Data

Electoral Calculus Seat Change Projection From ComRes Data

This model projects Labour will pick up one seat from Plaid Cymru while losing 40 seats elsewhere.

This model also shows Tories doing better in Scotland than most believe. I suspect that will be the actual case based on falling poll numbers of SNP.

YouGov Analysis

The YouGov Election Centre updates its model periodically. It provides a seat-by-set CSV-file download which I took then added some cross-check calculations.

It is not easy to see on the raw YouGov CSV file which party won. I added a set of columns to show which party won each seat.

You can download my summation of their data from my Google Drive UK Seat by Seat Projection File.

There were 8 ties. I cannot tell from the CSV file which party won the ties other than Tories 2, Labour 4, and Liberal Democrats 2.

Results

  • YouGov Nov 19-26: Tory 68 Seat Majority
  • Electoral Calculus Nov 26-30: Tory 32 Seat Majority
  • ComRes Data Modeled by Electoral Calculus Nov 27-28: Tory 48 Seat Majority
  • Average: 49

I believe the average is about right.

This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD rises above 0.9700 amid persistent dollar weakness

EUR/USD rises above 0.9700 amid persistent dollar weakness

EUR/USD has gathered bullish momentum and advanced to a fresh daily high above 0.9700 in the American session on Wednesday. The renewed selling pressure surrounding the greenback amid improving market mood seems to be fueling the pair's rebound.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD extends recovery beyond 1.0850 in volatile session

GBP/USD extends recovery beyond 1.0850 in volatile session

Following an initial spike to 1.0850 on BoE's intervention in gilt markets, GBP/USD lost nearly 300 pips. With the dollar losing its strength after Wall Street's opening bell, however, the pair reaches fresh daily highs above the level. 

GBP/USD News

Gold rebounds above $1,650 as US yields retreat

Gold rebounds above $1,650 as US yields retreat

Gold gathered bullish momentum and recovered above $1,650 from the multi-year-low it touched at $1,615. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down over 4% on the day following the BoE's intervention in the gilt market, helping XAU/USD stretch higher.

Gold News

Cardano price ignored the Vasil hard fork, but here is a promising bullish pattern

Cardano price ignored the Vasil hard fork, but here is a promising bullish pattern

ADA has a lot to prove to investors amid questions over frequent declines despite increased development activities. The smart contracts token is trading slightly below its price level before the Vasil hard fork.

Read more

Invesco Nasdaq Trust (QQQ) ETF hopes for pivot but faces Apple headwinds

Invesco Nasdaq Trust (QQQ) ETF hopes for pivot but faces Apple headwinds

Stocks remain challenged this morning by competing news as overall volatility levels remain close to recent highs. A brief attempt at a rally on Tuesday failed miserably, and now the market opens negatively after having attempted to move higher during the premarket.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures