EUR/USD supported above 1.1700 as weaker Dollar sets tone before NFP
- EUR/USD trades around 1.1739 as Dollar weakens, with DXY posting a third loss in four sessions.
- Mixed Fed commentary persists, with Miran dovish, Collins neutral, and Williams signaling policy near neutral.
- Markets focus on upcoming US NFP and Retail Sales, key catalysts for Dollar and Fed policy expectations.
EUR/USD holds firms above the 1.1700 threshold on Monday as the US Dollar weakens while investors wait for the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1739 unchanged.
Euro steadies near multi-week highs as traders await Nonfarm Payrolls and assess mixed Fed rhetoric
Greenback continues to edge lower down 0.10% according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, registers the third daily loss in the last four, poised to reach the 98.00 figure if the jobs market continues to deteriorate.
The US docket featured a tranche of Fed officials. Fed Governor Stephen Mira was dovish while Boston Fed President Susan Collins justified her decision at the December meeting, striking neutral comments.
Contrarily, New York Fed President John Williams was modestly hawkish, saying that policy has moved “from modestly restrictive” to neutral.
On Tuesday, market participants would digest the November Nonfarm Payrolls, Retail Sales alongside further comments by Fed speakers.
Across the pond, a Reuters poll revealed that economists project the European Central Bank (ECB) will remain in hold throughout 2026 as they estimate inflation to remain subdued, but the economy is expected to stay resilient.
Ahead of the week, the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at the December 18 meeting.
Euro Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this month. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.32% | -1.01% | -0.61% | -1.47% | -1.38% | -0.83% | -0.93% | |
| EUR | 1.32% | 0.31% | 0.75% | -0.16% | -0.06% | 0.48% | 0.39% | |
| GBP | 1.01% | -0.31% | 0.69% | -0.47% | -0.37% | 0.16% | 0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.61% | -0.75% | -0.69% | -0.88% | -0.81% | -0.26% | -0.32% | |
| CAD | 1.47% | 0.16% | 0.47% | 0.88% | 0.04% | 0.64% | 0.55% | |
| AUD | 1.38% | 0.06% | 0.37% | 0.81% | -0.04% | 0.54% | 0.46% | |
| NZD | 0.83% | -0.48% | -0.16% | 0.26% | -0.64% | -0.54% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.93% | -0.39% | -0.08% | 0.32% | -0.55% | -0.46% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily market movers: EUR/USD unchanged despite Fed hawkish rhetoric
- Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a third time in 2025, lowering the target range to 3.50%–3.75% in a split decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that policymakers could pause the easing cycle as the economy absorbs the cumulative 75 basis points of rate cuts delivered this year.
- Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she sees inflation risks lower than before, backing the latest rate cut amid a shift in the balance of risks.
- New York Fed President John Williams stressed that restoring inflation to the 2% target remains critical, noting that firms appear reluctant to both hire and fire. Williams expects the unemployment rate to hold near 4.5% by year-end and sees inflation reaching target in 2027. He projects GDP at 2.25% in 2026, above the expected pace for 2025.
- Earlier, Fed Governor Stephen Miran maintained a distinctly dovish stance, arguing that a faster pace of rate cuts would move policy closer to neutral. He reiterated expectations for a faster decline in shelter inflation within the PCE index and downplayed the role of tariffs in driving goods inflation higher.
- US November Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show job gains of 40K, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.4%. October Retail Sales are forecast to rise 0.2% MoM, unchanged from September, while control-group sales—used to calculate GDP—are projected to rebound to 0.3% after a 0.1% contraction previously.
Technical outlook: EUR/USD remains upward bias despite remaining subdued
EUR/USD’s technical setup points to a neutral-to-bullish bias, which would be reinforced if the pair manages to close the week above 1.1700. Momentum indicators support this view, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turning higher and signaling strengthening buying interest.
A break above the December 11 high at 1.1762 would clear the way toward 1.1800, followed by the 1.1850 region and, ultimately, the yearly high at 1.1918. Conversely, if the pair tumbles below 1.1700 it would shift the focus to initial support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1645, ahead of the 1.1600 handle.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.
