Forex Today: driven by fundamentals in Asia, UK data, Draghi’s speech on tap


Forex today experienced an eventful Asian session, however, mixed macro news from the Asia-pac regions left markets slightly nervous. The Japanese Yen bounced against its American counterpart amid better Japan’s Core Machinery Orders data and moderate risk-aversion. Meanwhile, the Antipodeans slipped after the Chinese inflation figures came in much weaker than the consensus forecasts while the comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe had little impact on the Aussie.

Among other related markets, the Asian indices traded mostly lower in tandem with oil prices, with the Nikkei 225 index down about -0.30% near 21,730 levels. Gold prices on Comex traded neutral around $ 1345 while copper prices dropped -0.60% to $ 3.122.

Main topics in Asia

US, Russia come to loggerheads in UN meeting - Reuters

“U.S. President Donald Trump and Western allies are discussing possible military action to punish Assad for a suspected poison gas attack on Saturday on a rebel-held town that long had held out against government forces.”

Australian consumer sentiment eases in April - Westpac Survey

A Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank survey of 1,200 people published today showed the consumer sentiment index fell 0.6 percent in April, from 0.2 percent seen in March.

China's inflation softens more than expected in March

China's Consumer Price Index (MoM) (March) came in at -1.1% vs -0.5% exp and 1.2% last, while Consumer Price Index (YoY) (March) was 2.1% vs 2.6% exp and 2.9% last.

PBOC’s Yi: PBOC well prepared for global monetary policy normalization

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang is out on the wires now, via Reuters, speaking on the monetary policy at the Boao Forum in China.

PBOC’s Yi: China will not devalue Yuan to deal with the US trade issues

The People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) new Governor Yi Gang is now speaking on the Yuan devaluation at the Boao Forum.

Gold: Bullish bias is strongest since early September

Gold (XAU/USD) hit a one-week high of $1,342 in Asia and could extend the rally further to the recent high of $1,353, as indicated by strengthening bullish bias in the options market.  

RBA's Lowe: rates are likely to move up, not down

The Reserve Bank of Australia's head Philip Lowe is speaking at an event where he is discussing his outlook on recent developments in the Australian economy.

Key Focus ahead

We have an action-packed EUR calendar for today after a quiet week so far, as markets eagerly await the UK data dump for fresh trading impetus. The UK docket sees the releases of the industrial and manufacturing production alongside the goods trade balance figures. Also, the UK’s NIESR GDP estimate will be reported during mid-Europe.

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi, especially after ECB policymaker Nowotny’s hawkish comments delivered yesterday. Draghi is due to speak at the Generation €uro Students’ Award Ceremony, in Frankfurt. 

Moving on, the NA session will see the critical events from the US, with the March consumer price index (CPI) report due on the cards at 1230 GMT, followed by the EIA crude stockpiles data. In the American afternoon, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes of the March monetary policy meeting will be published, which is expected to have a significant impact on the US dollar trades going forward.

EUR/USD reaching for 1.24 ahead of Draghi's speech, Fed minutes

The European session ahead will be a thin but decided showing for the EUR on the economic calendar; the European Central Bank (ECB) will be posting the minutes of their Non-Monetary Policy Meeting at 07:00 GMT …

GBP/USD eyes 200-week MA hurdle, focus on UK trade and manufacturing data

The GBP/USD has scaled close to 200 pips in the last three trading days and could take out the 200-week moving average (MA) hurdle of 1.4240 in a convincing manner if the UK blows past expectations.

UK: Key risk events ahead - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offer the previews of the key risk events due on the cards from the UK docket today at 0830 GMT.

FOMC minutes to provide more evidence of upbeat, more hawkish Fed narrative - ANZ

In the view of the analysts at ANZ, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting is likely to come in more hawkish, which could offer further support to the ongoing broad USD recovery.

US CPI preview: to slow to a pace of 0.1% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura previewed the forthcoming US CPI and expect core CPI m-o-m inflation to slow to a pace of 0.1% (0.134%) in March (Consensus: 0.2%) after a trend-like increase of 0.2% (0.182%) in February. 

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Tuesday, Apr 10
23:50
2.4%
0.0%
2.9%
23:50
2.1%
2.0%
2.5%
23:50
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
23:50
2.0%
2.1%
2.1%
Wednesday, Apr 11
00:30
-0.6%
 
0.2%
01:30
-1.1%
-0.5%
1.2%
01:30
3.1%
3.2%
3.7%
01:30
2.1%
2.6%
2.9%
03:00
6.8%
 
6.8% Revised from 6.9%
05:00
 
 
07:00
 
 
$-7.096B
07:00
 
 
2.2%
07:00
 
 
08:00
 
0.3%
-0.5%
08:00
 
 
-0.8%
08:30
 
0.4%
1.3%
08:30
 
0.2%
0.1%
08:30
 
2.9%
1.6%
08:30
 
3.3%
2.7%
08:30
 
£-11.950B
£-12.325B
08:30
 
£-4.400B
£-3.868B
08:30
 
£-2.600B
£-3.074B
n/a
 
 
1.27%
n/a
 
 
1.58%
10:00
 
 
0.6%
10:00
 
 
-0.7%
11:00
 
 
-3.3%
11:00
 
 
11:30
 
 
9.8%
12:00
 
0.3%
0.3%
12:30
 
256.200
255.751
12:30
 
249.576
248.991
12:30
 
0.0%
0.2%
12:30
 
2.1%
1.8%
12:30
 
2.4%
2.2%
12:30
 
0.2%
0.2%
14:00
 
 
0%
14:00
 
 
0.9%
14:30
 
-0.189M
-4.617M
17:00
 
 
2.889%
18:00
 
$-194B
$-215B
18:00
 
 
22:45
 
 
3.3%
22:45
 
0.5%
-0.3%
23:00
 
 
23:01
 
2%
0%
23:50
 
3.2%
3.3%
23:50
 
 
¥228.8B
23:50
 
 
¥-774.3B
Thursday, Apr 12
00:30
 
 
01:00
 
 
1.5%
01:00
 
 
3.7%
01:30
 
 
1.1%
01:30
 
-0.6%
-1.1%
02:00
 
8.9%
8.8%
02:00
 
1,200.0B
839.3B
02:00
 
 
0.5%
05:00
 
 
-5.4%
05:00
 
 
-8.4%
06:00
 
 
4.7%
06:30
 
 
06:45
 
 
0%
06:45
 
1.1%
0.0%
06:45
 
1.7%
1.7%
08:30
 
 
08:30
 
 
1.6%
08:30
 
 
0.7%
09:00
 
 
20.8%
09:00
 
3.8%
2.7%
09:00
 
0.1%
-1.0%
10:00
 
 
0.9%
10:00
 
 
0.7%
10:00
 
 
0.9%
10:00
 
 
0.5%
11:30
 
 
8.7%
11:30
 
 
7.5%
11:30
 
 
4.1%
11:30
 
 
12:00
 
 
0.9%
12:15
 
 
12:30
 
1.848M
1.808M
12:30
 
230K
242K
12:30
 
3.6%
3.3%
12:30
 
0.2%
0.2%
12:30
 
3.6%
3.5%
12:30
 
0.2%
0.4%
12:30
 
 
3.2%
12:30
 
0.1%
0.0%
13:00
 
 
$457.7B
14:30
 
-11B
-29B
16:00
 
 
17:00
 
 
17:00
 
 
3.109%
19:00
 
 
21:00
 
 
22:00
 
 
22:30
 
 
53.4
Friday, Apr 13
24h
 
 
00:00
 
 
$6.9B
00:00
 
 
3.6%
00:00
 
 
2.1%
01:30
 
 
02:00
 
10.0%
44.5%
02:00
 
 
-0.2%
n/a
 
$27.21B
$33.75B Revised from $33.74B
02:00
 
 
36.2%
02:00
 
10.0%
6.3%
02:00
 
 
224.9B
04:30
 
 
1.5%
06:00
 
1.6%
1.6%
06:00
 
0.4%
0.4%
06:00
 
1.5%
1.5%
06:00
 
 
0.4%
07:00
 
 
1.3%
07:00
 
 
0.1%
07:00
 
 
0.1%
07:00
 
 
1.1%
07:00
 
 
0.9%
07:00
 
 
€0.3B
07:00
 
 
0.6%
07:00
 
 
0.2%
07:00
 
 
2.3%
07:00
 
 
0.2%
07:00
 
 
2.1%
09:00
 
 
-0.1%
09:00
 
 
1.3%
n/a
 
 
0.4%
09:00
 
 
0.1%
09:00
 
€16.6B
€3.3B
09:00
 
€22.1B
€19.9B
11:30
 
 
$424.36B
12:00
 
 
€2.005M
12:00
 
 
13:00
 
 
13:00
 
 
13:00
 
 
$16.991B
14:00
 
6.140M
6.312M
14:00
 
101.0
101.4
17:00
 
 
808
19:30
 
 
$-9.9K
19:30
 
 
$166.6K
19:30
 
 
699.5K
19:30
 
 
£40.3K
19:30
 
 
¥3.6K
19:30
 
 
€134.44K
19:30
 
 
$-0.1K
Saturday, Apr 14
24h
 
 

 

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