Forex Today: Brexit in the EU's hands, EUR/USD may struggle with Draghi one last time, Bitcoin battered

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, October 24:

Brexit: GBP/USD has stabilized around 1.29 as the EU is considering a delay to the UK's exit. France reportedly wants only a short delay from October 31 to November 15, while other countries tend to approve a postponement to January 31, 2020 – as stated in Britain's extension request. A long delay will likely result in snap elections while a short one in another push to complete legislation. Brussels will likely indicate its decision on Friday.
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, will preside over his last decision at the helm. He will likely defend his eight-year tenure, and mostly his last decision to cut rates and restart the bond-buying scheme. If he justifies the stimulus by painting a dark picture of the euro-zone economies, EUR/USD may struggle. Preview: Draghi's defense of his legacy may drag EUR/USD down
Ahead of the ECB's decision, preliminary euro-zone Purchasing Managers' Indexes for October will provide an update on the economy. See Three reasons why EUR/USD may fall without waiting for Draghi
Several other countries will announce their rate decisions today, with Turkey standing out. US President Donald Trump announced that he is lifting sanctions after Ankara committed to a permanent ceasefire in Northern Syria. The CBRT is set to cut interest rates. USD/TRY volatility is set to remain high.
The market mood has somewhat improved, with the safe-haven USD, JPY, and Gold in retreat. US Vice President Mike Pence will deliver a significant speech on China later in the day, and markets will watch it as guidance for trade talks.
US data: US Durable Goods Orders for September provide an indication for US GDP next week and are set to move markets. Preview: Business spending continues to restrain durable goods. Weekly Unemployment Claims, News Home Sales, and Markit's PMIs are also of interest.
Cryptocurrencies are licking their wounds at lower ground, with Bitcoin trading below $7,500. Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg testified on Capitol Hill and defended the social media's Libra cryptocurrency project. He seemed to have failed to convince lawmakers that the project is needed and that it will compete with Chinese initiatives.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.