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Forex Today: Aussie – strongest amid Trump-led risk-on, eyes on Carney, Powell

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

The risk-on sentiment dominated the Asian trades this Tuesday on the back of the US President Trump’s optimism on the US-China trade deal. The Asian markets cheered improved risk appetite while the US dollar stalled its upside and consolidated the recent gains versus its main peers. The Aussie benefited the most from an unexpected uptick in the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) survey readings and trade deal hopes, having made a few attempts to test the 0.71 barrier. The Kiwi also followed suit and hit three-week lows at 0.6740 while the USD/JPY pair surpassed the 110.50 level to hit fresh seven-week tops at 110.66. Further upside in the US equity futures and Treasury yields aided the fresh leg up in the spot. Meanwhile, both the Euro and the GBP traded better bid, looking to stabilize ahead of the key central bankers’ speeches.

On the commodities’ front, both crude benchmarks traded with moderate gains amid US-China trade while gold prices on Comex traded modestly flat above 1310 levels.

Main Topics in Asia

Aussie pops on the back of NAB's business confidence and conditions surprising to the upside

BOJ trims long-term JGB purchases for the first time since July 2018

US Senator Shelby: Agreement in principle reached in US shutdown talks

RBNZ 2-year inflation expectations for Q1 at 2.02% vs. 2.03% prior

Gold Technical Analysis: Failed breakout has established $1315 as key resistance

Trump says “We are going to make great deals on trade”, Aussie jumps to 0.7090

Trump: `We probably have some good news' over border deal

China’s CommerceMin: China will take more measures to boost consumption

Asian stocks rise on US-China trade optimism

UK PM Theresa May calls on former EU Chief to help break Brexit deadlock – Sky News

USD/INR Technical Analysis: Bearish bias intact

Key Focus Ahead

We have a data-light calendar today, with absolutely no release from the Euroland as well as from the UK docket. Meanwhile, the NA calendar sees the US JOLTS job openings data for the month of December while the API will publish its weekly crude stocks data at 2130 GMT. Hence, markets remain focused on a slew of speeches due to be delivered by the major central bankers (CB) amidst Brexit-related developments and the US-China trade headlines.

Also, in focus remains the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision and Governor Orr’s presser that is scheduled in Wednesday’s early Asian session.

The key CB speeches lined up for today are here under:

0800 GMT: ECB Vice-President Weidmann

0900 GMT: ECB Nowotny

1300 GMT: BOE Governor Carney

1745 GMT: Fed Chair Powell

EUR/USD: Investors continue to add bets to position for drop in EUR

Risk reversals on the EUR, a gauge of calls to puts on the common currency, fell to its lowest level since the end of November, indicating investors are adding bets to position for further weakness in the EUR.

GBP/USD: Carney's speech awaited after UK GDP miss

BoE’s Carney is scheduled to deliver a speech relating to “the latest developments in the global economy and risks to the outlook” in London around 13:00 GMT today.

EUR/GBP: Where it can go in these 5 Brexit scenarios

Time is running out to reach a deal on Brexit, with fewer than 50 days left to go. UK PM Theresa May is trying to find a deal that may pass muster in the House of Commons, be acceptable to the European Union, and not break up her party.

RBNZ Preview: Dovish shift priced in, NZD/USD to rise?

The Reserve Bank of New announces its first rate decision for 2019 on Wednesday, February 13th, at 1:00 GMT. Governor Adrian Orr will meet the press at 2:00 GMT.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Feb 11
24h	EUR Eurogroup meeting
Tuesday, Feb 12
24h	EUR EcoFin Meeting
00:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Conditions	7	4	2
00:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Confidence	4	3	3
00:30	AUD Home Loans	-6.1%	-2.0%	-0.9%
02:00	NZD RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ)	2%		2%
04:30	JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)	-0.3%	0.4%	-0.3%
05:00	SGD Retail Sales (MoM)	-3.4%		0.1% Revised from 0.2%
05:00	SGD Retail Sales (YoY)	-6.0%		-2.4% Revised from -3.0%
06:00	JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)			-18.3%
08:00	EUR German Buba President Weidmann speech
08:00	HUF Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.7%
08:00	HUF Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.8%
n/a	EUR 6-Month Letras Auction			-0.428%
n/a	EUR 12-Month Letras Auction			-0.333%
09:30	ZAR Unemployment Rate (%)			27.5%
09:30	ZAR Unemployment Total			6.2M
11:00	USD NFIB Business Optimism Index		103.2	104.4
11:00	ZAR Manufacturing Production Index (YoY)		1.7%	1.6%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.4%	0.4%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		-1.2%	-1.2%
12:00	INR Manufacturing Output			-0.4%
12:00	INR Industrial Output		2.0%	0.5%
12:00	INR Cumulative Industrial Output			5%
13:00	GBP BoE's Governor Carney speech
13:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-2%
13:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			5.7%
15:00	USD JOLTS Job Openings		6.960M	6.888M
17:45	USD Fed's Chair Powell speech
20:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$99.2K
20:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			277.2K
20:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$131.8K
20:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-60.1K
20:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-61.3K
20:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€-40.5K
20:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$-37.8K
21:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			2.514M
22:30	USD Fed's George speech
23:00	KRW Unemployment Rate			3.8%
23:30	USD Fed's Mester speech
23:30	EUR ECB's Lautenschläger speech
23:30	AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence			-4.7%
23:50	JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM)		-0.2%	-0.6%
23:50	JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY)		1.1%	1.5%
Wednesday, Feb 13
00:30	AUD Investment Lending for Homes			-4.5%
01:00	NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
01:00	NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision		1.75%	1.75%
01:00	NZD Monetary Policy Statement
02:00	CNY M2 Money Supply (YoY)		8.2%	8.1%
02:00	CNY New Loans		2,970.5B	1,080.0B
02:00	KRW Trade Balance			$1.34B
02:00	NZD RBNZ Press Conference
n/a	CNY FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY)			0.9%
04:00	IDR Trade Balance			$-1.1B
04:00	IDR Exports			-4.62%
04:00	IDR Imports			1.16%
05:30	EUR Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY)			2%
07:00	RON Industrial Production (MoM)			0.8%
07:00	RON Consumer Price Index		3.2%	3.3%
08:00	HUF Industrial Output (YoY)			5.4%
08:00	CZK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2%
08:00	CZK Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.1%
08:30	SEK Riksbank Interest Rate Decision		-0.25%	-0.25%
09:30	GBP Retail Price Index (YoY)		2.6%	2.7%
09:30	GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)		-0.8%	0.4%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a		3.8%	3.7%
09:30	GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a		0.2%	0.2%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a		2.3%	2.5%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a		0.0%	-0.3%
09:30	GBP PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a		2.4%	2.5%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a		0.3%	-1.0%
09:30	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.9%	1.9%
09:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.0%	2.1%
09:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
10:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)		-0.4%	-1.7%
10:00	EUR Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)		-3.2%	-3.3%
n/a	EUR 30-y Bond Auction			0.85%
11:00	BRL Retail Sales (MoM)			2.9%
11:00	ZAR Retail Sales (YoY)		2.7%	3.1%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			10.4%
12:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-2.5%
12:15	USD Fed's Bostic speech
13:00	PLN Current Account			€-221M
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		-0.1%	-0.1%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)		251.52	251.23
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a			260.03
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.6%	1.9%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)		2.1%	2.2%
13:50	USD Fed's Mester speech
15:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			1.263M
16:00	COP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.7%
19:00	USD Monthly Budget Statement		$-11B	$-205B
19:10	NZD RBNZ's Governor Orr speech
21:45	NZD Food Price Index (MoM)			-0.2%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized		1.4%	-2.5%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.4%	-0.6%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY)		-0.4%	-0.3%
Thursday, Feb 14
00:00	AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations			3.5%
00:01	GBP RICS Housing Price Balance		-20%	-19%
n/a	CNY Exports (YoY)		-3.3%	-4.4%
n/a	CNY Trade Balance USD		$33.50B	$57.06B
n/a	CNY Imports (YoY) CNY			-3.1%
n/a	CNY Exports (YoY) CNY			0.2%
n/a	CNY Imports (YoY)		-9.0%	-7.6%
n/a	CNY Trade Balance CNY			395B
06:30	INR WPI Inflation		3.65%	3.80%
06:30	EUR ILO Unemployment		9.1%	9.1%
07:00	EUR Wholesale Price Index (YoY)			2.5%
07:00	EUR Wholesale Price Index (MoM)			-1.2%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.1%	-0.2%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)		0.9%	1.1%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		0.8%	1.1%
07:00	TRY Industrial Production (YoY)		-7.5%	-6.5%
07:00	TRY Current Account Balance		$0.970B	$0.986B
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			1.8%
07:00	EUR Current Account			€0.2B
07:00	RON Gross Domestic Product		3.9%	4.4%
07:30	CHF Producer and Import Prices (YoY)			0.6%
07:30	CHF Producer and Import Prices (MoM)			-0.6%
08:00	HUF Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			4.9%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product Prelim (YoY)		4.4%	4.6%
08:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)			0.2%
08:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)			2.4%
08:30	SEK Unemployment Rate			6%
09:00	PLN Gross Domestic Product Qtr (YoY)			5.1%
09:00	CZK Current Account (MoM)			8.68B
09:30	GBP BoE's Vlieghe speech
09:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY)			0.6%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.6%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)		1.2%	1.2%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)		0.2%	0.2%
10:00	EUR Employment Change (QoQ)			0.2%
10:00	EUR Employment Change (YoY)			1.3%
11:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			0.8%
11:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			-0.1%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.7%
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$477.7B
13:30	USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.1%	0.2%
13:30	USD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.1%	0.2%
13:30	USD Retail Sales control group		0.4%	0.9%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	-0.2%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index (YoY)		2.1%	2.5%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)		2.5%	2.7%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)		0.2%	-0.1%
13:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.740M	1.736M
13:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		228K	234K
13:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)			-1.4%
13:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY)			0%
13:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM)			0%
15:00	USD Business Inventories		0.3%	0.6%
15:00	COP Retail Sales (YoY)			10.8%
15:00	COP Trade Balance		$-1,033.0M	$-920.1M
15:00	COP Industrial ouput (YoY)			4.7%
15:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			-237B
16:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			2.39%
19:00	ARS Consumer Price Index (MoM)			2.6%
20:30	AUD RBA's Kent Speech
21:30	NZD Business NZ PMI			55.1
22:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)			7.1%
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥-123.8B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥915.3B
Friday, Feb 15
00:00	SGD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			1.6%
00:00	SGD Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.2%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.0%	1.9%
01:30	CNY Producer Price Index (YoY)		0.3%	0.9%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.5%	0.0%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			-1.9%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)		-0.1%	-0.1%
04:30	JPY Capacity Utilization			1%
05:30	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			4.6%
07:00	TRY 3mth quarterly jobless average			11.6%
07:00	NOK Trade Balance			25B
08:00	TRY Budget Balance			-18.1B
08:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		1.2%	1.0%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		-0.4%	-1.3%
08:00	EUR HICP (MoM)		-0.5%	-1.7%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.2%	1.0%
08:00	CZK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.4%
08:00	EUR Headline Inflation (MoM)		1.0%	-0.1%
08:00	EUR Core Inflation (MoM)		0.8%	-0.4%
08:00	EUR Core Inflation (YoY)		1.8%	1.8%
08:00	EUR Headline Inflation (YoY)		2.2%	1.9%
09:00	EUR Global Trade Balance			€3.843B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance EU			€0.513B
09:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.0%
09:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.1%
09:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)
09:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		0.2%	-1.3%
09:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)		3.0%	2.6%
09:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)		0.1%	-0.9%
09:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)		3.4%	3.0%
10:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.			€15.1B
10:00	EUR Trade Balance n.s.a.			€19B
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			14.5%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$400.24B
13:00	EUR ECB's Cœuré speech
13:30	USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		7.0	3.9
13:30	USD Export Price Index (YoY)			1.1%
13:30	USD Import Price Index (MoM)		-0.2%	-1.0%
13:30	USD Import Price Index (YoY)			-0.6%
13:30	USD Export Price Index (MoM)		-0.4%	-0.6%
13:30	CAD Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities			$-4.09B
13:30	CAD Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities			$9.45B
14:15	USD Capacity Utilization		78.8%	78.7%
14:15	USD Industrial Production (MoM)		0.1%	0.3%
14:55	USD Fed's Bostic speech
15:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		94.5	91.2
18:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			854
20:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions
20:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions
20:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions
20:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions
20:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions
20:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions
20:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions
21:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows			$31.3B
21:00	USD Total Net TIC Flows			$42B

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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