Forex Today: Aussie dumped on Aus CPI, German Ifo, UK GDP on tap


Forex today witnessed a brief consolidation phase in the US dollar and Treasury yields, after the overnight upsurge, leaving the main currency pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY) better offered in tight ranges. Meanwhile, the Antipodeans extended yesterday’s sell-off, with the Aussie emerging the biggest loser across the fx space, following the release of softer-than-expected Australian Q3 CPI data. The Kiwi also suffered on the back of latest NZ political updates.

Among other related markets, gold kept losses near $ 1275, while the Asian equities traded mostly higher, with the Nikkei 225 index now ending a 16-day winning streak towards the close. Oil prices traded mixed, awaiting fresh impetus from the weekly crude supplies data due to be published by the US EIA.

Main topics in Asia

Aussie CPI comes in well below RBA's 2-3% target

The Australian Q3 trimmed mean CPI rises just 0.4% q/q; vs the expected 0.5% while the Australia Q3 consumer prices rise 0.6% q/q vs expected. 0.8%. 

Japan’s government mulls tax benefits for companies that raise wages - NHK

NHK, Japan's largest broadcasting organization, reported earlier today that Japan’s government mulls tax benefits for companies that raise wages.

Sources: Japan may declare end to deflation before 2019 tax hike - RTRS

Reuters quoted government sources familiar with the matter, noting that Japan’s government may be able to declare that the economy has made a sustained exit from deflation before it implements a scheduled sales tax hike in October 2019.

China’s Politburo shows no clear successor to President Xi

China’s ruling Communist Party revealed its new leadership line-up on Wednesday, culminating a week-long party congress.

Nikkei 225 set for 17th straight gain, rest of Asia higher

The stocks on the Asian bourses traded with mild gains on Wednesday, tracking the record high levels seen on the Wall Street overnight…

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, the main focus remains on the German Ifo surveys and UK Q3 prelim GDP report, which will keep the EUR, GBP traders busy. Meanwhile, the US docket offers the new home sales and durable goods orders data, which will draw some attention, as it is seen as a proxy for the US growth numbers. The Bank of Canada (BOC) will announce its monetary policy decision, followed by the press conference, while the EIA crude oil inventory report will be also closely eyed by the CAD traders.

EUR/USD - US-German yield spread rises & Vols drop, slow decline on the cards?

EUR/USD traded in the narrow range of 1.1790-1.1740 on Tuesday as the widening US-German yield spread capped gains.

GBP/USD: Vulnerable below 100-DMA support, UK GDP eyed

The GBP/USD pair extended its overnight bearish consolidative mode into Asia this Wednesday, as the bears gathered pace for a decisive break below 100-DMA support located at 1.3113…

Next major event risks ahead? - Westpac

"UK: Q3 GDP is seen to rise 0.3%, the same as Q2, with softness in activity (particularly household spending) continuing.”

Durable goods preview - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the key durable goods orders for the US session.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Tuesday, Oct 24
13:45
54.5
53.5
53.1
14:00
12
17
19
15:30
1.005%
 
0.995%
17:00
1.596%
 
1.462%
19:00
$-765.000M
 
$-1.083M
20:30
0.519M
 
-7.130M
Wednesday, Oct 25
00:30
0.6%
0.8%
0.2%
00:30
1.8%
2.0%
1.8%
00:30
1.8%
2.0%
1.9%
00:30
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
06:00
 
 
1.53
08:00
 
107.3
107.4
08:00
 
123.5
123.6
08:00
 
115.2
115.2
08:00
 
 
4%
08:00
 
 
-0.3%
08:00
 
 
0.2%
08:00
 
 
10.1%
08:00
 
 
5.7%
08:00
 
 
28
08:30
 
41.800K
41.807K
08:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
08:30
 
1.4%
1.5%
08:30
 
0.4%
0.5%
n/a
 
 
0.44%
11:00
 
 
3.6%
11:30
 
 
79%
11:30
 
 
111.6
11:30
 
 
6%
12:30
 
0.5%
0.5% Revised from 0.2%
12:30
 
1.0%
2.0% Revised from 1.7%
13:00
 
0.4%
0.2%
13:00
 
0.1%
0.3%
13:00
 
0.3%
0.4%
14:00
 
0.555M
0.560M
14:00
 
-0.9%
-3.4%
14:00
 
 
14:00
 
1%
1%
14:00
 
 
14:30
 
-2.578M
-5.731M
15:15
 
 
17:00
 
 
1.911%
17:00
 
 
8.25%
21:45
 
$-900M
$-1,235M
21:45
 
$-2.706B
$-3.200B
21:45
 
$3.90B
$3.69B
21:45
 
$4.88B
$4.92B
23:00
 
 
0.6%
23:00
 
 
2.7%
23:50
 
0.8%
0.8%
23:50
 
 
¥269.7B
23:50
 
 
¥840.7B
Thursday, Oct 26
24h
 
 
00:30
 
 
-5.7%
00:30
 
 
-0.1%
06:00
 
10.8
10.8
n/a
 
 
4.2%
07:00
 
 
4.2%
07:30
 
 
-0.5%
07:30
 
 
-5.4B
07:45
 
 
08:00
 
114.9
115.5
08:00
 
110.0
110.4
08:00
 
 
2.5%
08:00
 
 
4.8%
08:00
 
5%
5%
n/a
 
 
2.19%
09:30
 
 
4.2%
09:30
 
 
0.4%
10:00
 
 
42%
11:45
 
0%
0%
11:45
 
-0.4%
-0.4%
12:30
 
 
1.888M
12:30
 
 
222K
12:30
 
 
0.9%
12:30
 
 
$-62.94B
12:30
 
 
13:00
 
 
$-1.283B
13:00
 
 
$-2.732B
n/a
 
 
$427B
13:30
 
 
$-302B
14:00
 
 
-3.1%
14:00
 
 
-2.6%
14:30
 
 
51B
14:30
 
 
15:00
 
 
22
n/a
 
 
17:00
 
 
2.13%
21:00
 
 
107.7
23:30
 
0.5%
0.5%
23:30
 
 
0.5%
23:30
 
 
0%
23:30
 
 
0.7%
23:30
 
0.8%
0.7%
23:30
 
 
0.2%
Friday, Oct 27
00:01
 
 
105.8
00:30
 
 
0.5%
00:30
 
 
1.7%
n/a
 
 
02:30
 
 
2.2%
06:00
 
2.5%
2.1%
06:00
 
0.4%
0.0%
06:00
 
 
23.7
06:45
 
102
101
07:00
 
 
1.6%
n/a
 
102.2
101.8
07:15
 
 
07:30
 
 
2.8%
07:30
 
 
-0.1%
10:00
 
 
1.4%
10:00
 
 
0.1%
10:00
 
 
-4.2%
10:00
 
 
4.7%
n/a
 
 
8.5%
11:30
 
 
6.9%
11:30
 
 
$400.3B
12:30
 
1.3%
1.0%
12:30
 
2.6%
3.1%
12:30
 
 
0.3%
12:30
 
1.2%
0.9%
14:00
 
96.0
101.1
17:00
 
 
736
19:30
 
 
$161.9K
19:30
 
 
429.5K
19:30
 
 
$200.7K
19:30
 
 
£5K
19:30
 
 
¥-101.3K
19:30
 
 
€90.5K
19:30
 
 
$61.8K
Saturday, Oct 28
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 

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