Forex Today: Aussie dumped on Aus CPI, German Ifo, UK GDP on tap

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today witnessed a brief consolidation phase in the US dollar and Treasury yields, after the overnight upsurge, leaving the main currency pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY) better offered in tight ranges. Meanwhile, the Antipodeans extended yesterday’s sell-off, with the Aussie emerging the biggest loser across the fx space, following the release of softer-than-expected Australian Q3 CPI data. The Kiwi also suffered on the back of latest NZ political updates.

Among other related markets, gold kept losses near $ 1275, while the Asian equities traded mostly higher, with the Nikkei 225 index now ending a 16-day winning streak towards the close. Oil prices traded mixed, awaiting fresh impetus from the weekly crude supplies data due to be published by the US EIA.

Main topics in Asia

Aussie CPI comes in well below RBA's 2-3% target

The Australian Q3 trimmed mean CPI rises just 0.4% q/q; vs the expected 0.5% while the Australia Q3 consumer prices rise 0.6% q/q vs expected. 0.8%.

Japan’s government mulls tax benefits for companies that raise wages - NHK

NHK, Japan's largest broadcasting organization, reported earlier today that Japan’s government mulls tax benefits for companies that raise wages.

Sources: Japan may declare end to deflation before 2019 tax hike - RTRS

Reuters quoted government sources familiar with the matter, noting that Japan’s government may be able to declare that the economy has made a sustained exit from deflation before it implements a scheduled sales tax hike in October 2019.

China’s Politburo shows no clear successor to President Xi

China’s ruling Communist Party revealed its new leadership line-up on Wednesday, culminating a week-long party congress.

Nikkei 225 set for 17th straight gain, rest of Asia higher

The stocks on the Asian bourses traded with mild gains on Wednesday, tracking the record high levels seen on the Wall Street overnight…

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, the main focus remains on the German Ifo surveys and UK Q3 prelim GDP report, which will keep the EUR, GBP traders busy. Meanwhile, the US docket offers the new home sales and durable goods orders data, which will draw some attention, as it is seen as a proxy for the US growth numbers. The Bank of Canada (BOC) will announce its monetary policy decision, followed by the press conference, while the EIA crude oil inventory report will be also closely eyed by the CAD traders.

EUR/USD - US-German yield spread rises & Vols drop, slow decline on the cards?

EUR/USD traded in the narrow range of 1.1790-1.1740 on Tuesday as the widening US-German yield spread capped gains.

GBP/USD: Vulnerable below 100-DMA support, UK GDP eyed

The GBP/USD pair extended its overnight bearish consolidative mode into Asia this Wednesday, as the bears gathered pace for a decisive break below 100-DMA support located at 1.3113…

Next major event risks ahead? - Westpac

"UK: Q3 GDP is seen to rise 0.3%, the same as Q2, with softness in activity (particularly household spending) continuing.”

Durable goods preview - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the key durable goods orders for the US session.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Tuesday, Oct 24
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI	54.5	53.5	53.1
14:00	USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	12	17	19
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction	1.005%		0.995%
17:00	USD 2-Year Note Auction	1.596%		1.462%
19:00	ARS Trade Balance (MoM)	$-765.000M		$-1.083M
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	0.519M		-7.130M
Wednesday, Oct 25
00:30	AUD Consumer Price Index (QoQ)	0.6%	0.8%	0.2%
00:30	AUD RBA trimmed mean CPI (YoY)	1.8%	2.0%	1.8%
00:30	AUD Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.8%	2.0%	1.9%
00:30	AUD RBA trimmed mean CPI (QoQ)	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
06:00	CHF UBS Consumption Indicator			1.53
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations		107.3	107.4
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment		123.5	123.6
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate		115.2	115.2
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)			4%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM)			-0.3%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY)			10.1%
08:00	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			5.7%
08:00	CHF ZEW Survey - Expectations			28
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals		41.800K	41.807K
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.3%	0.3%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1.4%	1.5%
08:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)		0.4%	0.5%
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.44%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			3.6%
11:30	TRY Capacity Utilization			79%
11:30	TRY Manufacturing Confidence			111.6
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			6%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation		0.5%	0.5% Revised from 0.2%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders		1.0%	2.0% Revised from 1.7%
13:00	USD Housing Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.2%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (MoM)		0.1%	0.3%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (YoY)		0.3%	0.4%
14:00	USD New Home Sales (MoM)		0.555M	0.560M
14:00	USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)		-0.9%	-3.4%
14:00	CAD Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
14:00	CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision		1%	1%
14:00	CAD BOC Rate Statement
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		-2.578M	-5.731M
15:15	CAD BoC Press Conference
17:00	USD 5-Year Note Auction			1.911%
17:00	BRL Interest Rate Decision			8.25%
21:45	NZD Trade Balance (MoM)		$-900M	$-1,235M
21:45	NZD Trade Balance (YoY)		$-2.706B	$-3.200B
21:45	NZD Exports		$3.90B	$3.69B
21:45	NZD Imports		$4.88B	$4.92B
23:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ)			0.6%
23:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY)			2.7%
23:50	JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)		0.8%	0.8%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥269.7B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥840.7B
Thursday, Oct 26
24h	EUR National Day
00:30	AUD Export Price Index (QoQ)			-5.7%
00:30	AUD Import Price Index (QoQ)			-0.1%
06:00	EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey		10.8	10.8
n/a	NOK Labour Force Survey			4.2%
07:00	HUF Unemployment Rate (3M)			4.2%
07:30	SEK Riksbank Interest Rate Decision			-0.5%
07:30	SEK Trade Balance (MoM)			-5.4B
07:45	AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech
08:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		114.9	115.5
08:00	EUR Business Confidence		110.0	110.4
08:00	EUR Private loans (YoY)			2.5%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (3m)			4.8%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY)		5%	5%
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			2.19%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.2%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
10:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)			42%
11:45	EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision		0%	0%
11:45	EUR ECB Deposit Rate Decision		-0.4%	-0.4%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.888M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			222K
12:30	USD Wholesale Inventories			0.9%
12:30	USD Goods Trade Balance			$-62.94B
12:30	EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
13:00	MXN Trade Balance s/a, $			$-1.283B
13:00	MXN Trade Balance, $			$-2.732B
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$427B
13:30	BRL Current Account			$-302B
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)			-3.1%
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)			-2.6%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			51B
14:30	USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
15:00	USD Kansas Fed manufacturing activity			22
n/a	EUR Catalan Parliament Session
17:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction			2.13%
21:00	KRW Consumer Sentiment Index			107.7
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.5%	0.5%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)			0.5%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)			0.7%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.8%	0.7%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0.2%
Friday, Oct 27
00:01	EUR Consumer Confidence			105.8
00:30	AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ)			0.5%
00:30	AUD Producer Price Index (YoY)			1.7%
n/a	AUD RBA Annual Report
02:30	SGD Unemployment rate			2.2%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)		2.5%	2.1%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.0%
06:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			23.7
06:45	EUR Consumer Confidence		102	101
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			1.6%
n/a	SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)		102.2	101.8
07:15	EUR ECB's Praet Speech
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (YoY)			2.8%
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.1%
10:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
10:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.1%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			-4.2%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			4.7%
n/a	RUB Interest rate decision			8.5%
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			6.9%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$400.3B
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index		1.3%	1.0%
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized		2.6%	3.1%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)			0.3%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)		1.2%	0.9%
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		96.0	101.1
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			736
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$161.9K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			429.5K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$200.7K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£5K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-101.3K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€90.5K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$61.8K
Saturday, Oct 28
24h	EUR The Ochi day
24h	HKD Chung Yeung Festival
24h	CZK Foundation of the independent Czechoslovak State

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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GBP/USD off highs, recedes to the sub-1.3500 area

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Gold climbs to weekly tops, approaches $5,100/oz

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