EUR/USD - US-German yield spread rises & Vols drop, slow decline on the cards?

EUR/USD traded in the narrow range of 1.1790-1.1740 on Tuesday as the widening US-German yield spread capped gains. The currency pair was flatlined in Asia around 1.1750 levels in Asia.

Yield spread at highest since June 12

• The difference or the spread between the US 10-year treasury yield and the German 10 year bund yield currently stands at 194.4 basis points; its highest level since June 12.

Vols drop

• The one-month ATM volatility continues to lose height. It topped out at 8.47 in early September and now hovers around 6.55 levels.

The rising yield spread and the decline in volatility indicates the EUR/USD could keep trade in the sideways manner with a bearish undertone  ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision.

EUR/USD Nov expiry options open interest activity shows increasing demand for put options. Thus a drop to the head and shoulders neckline level of 1.1660 cannot be ruled out.

Focus on US durable goods orders

A better-than-expected US core durable goods orders figure could help the US 10-year treasury yield build momentum above the key resistance of 2.4 percent. That would open doors for a another leg lower in EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The spot was last seen trading at the 1-hour 100-MA support of 1.1757. A break below 1.1725 (Oct 23 low) would expose 1.1668 (100-DMA) and 1.1660 (head and shoulders neckline). An end of the day close below 1.1660 would open up downside towards 1.1228 (target as per the measured height method).

On the higher side, a move above 1.1789 (1-hour 200-MA) if accompanied by narrowing of the US-German yield spread, could yield a sustained rally to 1.1832 (Sep 29 high) and 1.1846 (50-DMA).