- Widening US-German 10-year yield spread likely keep EUR under pressure
- Vols continue to drop ahead of the ECB
EUR/USD traded in the narrow range of 1.1790-1.1740 on Tuesday as the widening US-German yield spread capped gains. The currency pair was flatlined in Asia around 1.1750 levels in Asia.
Yield spread at highest since June 12
- The difference or the spread between the US 10-year treasury yield and the German 10 year bund yield currently stands at 194.4 basis points; its highest level since June 12.
Vols drop
- The one-month ATM volatility continues to lose height. It topped out at 8.47 in early September and now hovers around 6.55 levels.
The rising yield spread and the decline in volatility indicates the EUR/USD could keep trade in the sideways manner with a bearish undertone ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision.
EUR/USD Nov expiry options open interest activity shows increasing demand for put options. Thus a drop to the head and shoulders neckline level of 1.1660 cannot be ruled out.
Focus on US durable goods orders
A better-than-expected US core durable goods orders figure could help the US 10-year treasury yield build momentum above the key resistance of 2.4 percent. That would open doors for a another leg lower in EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
The spot was last seen trading at the 1-hour 100-MA support of 1.1757. A break below 1.1725 (Oct 23 low) would expose 1.1668 (100-DMA) and 1.1660 (head and shoulders neckline). An end of the day close below 1.1660 would open up downside towards 1.1228 (target as per the measured height method).
On the higher side, a move above 1.1789 (1-hour 200-MA) if accompanied by narrowing of the US-German yield spread, could yield a sustained rally to 1.1832 (Sep 29 high) and 1.1846 (50-DMA).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.