Forex Today: AUD, CAD rally on policy shift, a mix of CB speeches on tap

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today was dominated by notable demand for the commodity-currencies, amid improving commodities’ price and a shift in gear towards more hawkish narrative by most major central bankers, with the latest hawkish remarks from BOC Governor Poloz having sent the CAD to fresh 4-month tops versus the greenback. Meanwhile, the Aussie gained briefly above 0.76 handle also on the back of rate hike chatter.

The US dollar extended weakness into Asia and clocked fresh seven-month lows at 95.92, as a delay in the vote on the Healthcare bill by Senate until July 4 recess. Meanwhile, the Asian markets traded largely subdued, as oil prices stall its recovery ahead of $ 44 mark.

All eyes now remain on a mix of central bankers’ (CB) speeches lined up at 1330GMT, with BOC Governor, Poloz, Fed Chair Yellen, BOE Governor Carney and BOJ Chief Kuroda gather at the ECN Sintra conference. On the data front, we have the Eurozone money supply data, followed by the US goods trade balance and pending home sales release. Also, EIA crude stockpiles report will remain in focus for fresh moves in oil and Loonie.

Main topics in Asia

Japan PM Abe favors looser Debt-to-GDP ratio target

Reuters is carrying the headlines, which says Japanese PM Shinzo Abe is looking to ditch a pledge to balance the budget by fiscal 2020.

BOC’s Poloz: Rate cuts have done their job - CNBC

Comments from the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Poloz hit the wires earlier on the day, as he spoke on the monetary policy and economic outlook during an interview with CNBC.

CME to launch Australian Wheat FOB (Platts) futures contract from July 24

CME Group announced to launch Australian Wheat FOB (Platts) futures contract from July 24, Livesquawk reported earlier today.

Ex-RBA’s Edwards: RBA could raise rates eight times in two years – BBG

Bloomberg out with headlines from the former RBA board member John Edwards, commenting on the future course of the central bank’s monetary policy.

Key Focus ahead

Eurozone credit and M3 data in focus – Danske Bank

Data on euro area credit and M3 growth are due out today and will be the main economic release according to the analysts at Danske Bank.

GBP/USD regains poise, eyes 1.2860 ahead of Carney

The positive bias seen around the spot is mainly driven by ongoing broad based US dollar weakness, as the USD bulls remained weighed down by the delay in the Healthcare bill vote.

EUR/USD unstoppable, looks to 1.1400 ahead of Draghi

Following a small drop on Monday, the pair has not only managed to revert the negative start but it has also climbed to levels last seen in June 2016 above 1.1360 ahead of the opening bell in Euroland.

GBP/USD Forecast: USD slump might continue to extend support

The greenback continues to weaken against its major counterpart, with the key US Dollar Index sinking to seven-month lows near the 96.00 handle during Asian session on Wednesday.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Tuesday, Jun 27
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	0.85M		-2.72M
21:30	USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
Wednesday, Jun 28
24h	TRY Ramazan Feast
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)	-1.0%	-0.6%	-0.1%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)	4.1%	4.6%	6.1%
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)	1.1%	0.0%	-0.2%
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)	3.1%	1.8%	2.1%
06:00	CHF UBS Consumption Indicator	1.39		1.34 Revised from 1.48
06:45	EUR Consumer Confidence	108	103	103 Revised from 102
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		1.9%	1.8%
07:00	HUF Unemployment Rate (3M)			4.6%
07:30	USD FOMC Member Williams speech
08:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index			58
08:00	EUR Private loans (YoY)		2.4%	2.4%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (3m)			5%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY)		5.0%	4.9%
08:00	CHF ZEW Survey - Expectations			30.8
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)		0.0%	-0.1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.4%	1.6%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.0%	-0.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.3%	1.4%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.6%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		1.4%	1.6%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			0.6%
12:30	USD Wholesale Inventories		0.2%	-0.5%
12:30	USD Goods Trade Balance		$-66.2B	$-68.0B
13:30	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
13:30	JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech
13:30	EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
13:30	CAD BoC Governor Poloz Speech
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)			-3.3%
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)		0.8%	-1.3%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		-2.585M	-2.451M
17:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction			2.06%
18:20	CAD BOC Deputy Governor Patterson Speech
21:00	KRW BOK Manufacturing BSI			82
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥1,090.1B
23:50	JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)		-1.0%	1.4%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade (YoY)		2.6%	3.2%
23:50	JPY Large Retailer's Sales		-0.4%	1.1%
Thursday, Jun 29
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
24h	CLP Saint Peter and Saint Paul
01:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook			38.3%
01:00	NZD ANZ Business Confidence			14.9
01:00	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)			0.8%
06:00	EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey		10.4	10.4
07:00	TRY Economic confidence index			100.5
07:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			-5
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.9%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		1.5%	2.0%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (YoY)			4.5%
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (MoM)			1.3%
08:30	GBP Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)		£4.0B	£4.3B
08:30	GBP Consumer Credit		£1.450B	£1.525B
08:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals		64.000K	64.645K
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)			8.2%
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)		1.3%	1.2%
08:30	EUR Business Confidence			2
08:30	EUR Consumer Confidence			0.1
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.86%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.09%
09:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-1.3	-1.3
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.6%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
10:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.7%
10:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
10:00	EUR Services Sentiment		13.3	13.0
10:00	EUR Industrial Confidence		2.8	2.8
10:00	EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator		109.5	109.2
10:00	EUR Business Climate		0.96	0.90
12:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)		1.3%	1.4%
12:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.0%	-0.2%
12:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.4%	1.5%
12:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)		0.0%	-0.2%
12:00	BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M			-0.93%
12:00	CZK CNB Interest Rate Decision			0.05%
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		240K	241K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.940M	1.944M
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index		2.2%	2.2%
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized		1.2%	1.2%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)		2.4%	2.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)		2.1%	2.1%
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$406.4B
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			61B
19:00	ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)			-2.3%
21:30	HKD Retail Sales			0.1%
22:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			-7.6%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output (YoY)			1.7%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output Growth			-2.2%
23:00	KRW Service Sector Output			0.1%
23:01	GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence		-7	-5
23:01	EUR Consumer Confidence			100.5
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)		0.2%	0.1%
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.2%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)		0.4%	0.3%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.4%
23:30	JPY Unemployment Rate		2.8%	2.8%
23:30	JPY Jobs/applicants ratio		1.48	1.48
23:30	JPY Overall Household Spending (YoY)		-0.6%	-1.4%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)		-3.2%	4.0%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			5.7%
Friday, Jun 30
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI			54.5
01:00	CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI		51.0	51.2
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)		0.4%	0.4%
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)			4.9%
04:00	JPY Vehicle Production (YoY)			16.3%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)			-0.2%
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)		-1.5%	1.9%
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts			1.004M
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		2.6%	-0.9%
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	-0.2%
06:00	ZAR M3 Money Supply (YoY)			5.33%
06:00	ZAR Private Sector Credit			5.9%
06:00	NOK Retail Sales			0.2%
06:00	NOK Credit Indicator			5.1%
06:45	EUR Producer Prices (MoM)			-0.4%
06:45	EUR Consumer Spending (MoM)		0.7%	0.5%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)		0.8%	0.9%
07:00	TRY Trade Balance			-4.95B
07:00	DKK Gross Domestic Product - Revised (YoY)			2.3%
07:00	DKK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.6%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			2.8%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
07:00	HUF Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.4%
07:00	HUF Trade Balance			€878M
07:00	CZK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.9%
07:00	CHF KOF Leading Indicator		102.4	101.6
07:55	EUR Unemployment Change		-10K	-9K
07:55	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.7%	5.7%
08:00	EUR Public Deficit/GDP			2.3%
08:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€1.32B
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment s.a			95.66K
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a			2.6%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		2%	2%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.2%	0.2%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (YoY)			0.8%
08:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)		0.3%	0.2%
08:30	GBP Current Account		£-17.000B	£-12.088B
09:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			-1%
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			7.9%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.2%	1.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1%	1%
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			2.15%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			0.88%
n/a	INR Infrastructure Output (YoY)			2.5%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$381.96B
12:00	TRY Foreign Arrivals			18.1%
12:00	BRL Unemployment Rate			13.6%
12:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.9%
12:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0%
12:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)			5.1B
12:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			5,350.68B
12:30	USD Personal Spending		0.1%	0.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)			1.5%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
12:30	USD Personal Income (MoM)		0.3%	0.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.2%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)			1.7%
12:30	CAD Raw Material Price Index		-0.6%	1.6%
12:30	CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)		0.4%	0.6%
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)		0.2%	0.5%
13:00	CLP Unemployment rate			6.7%
13:00	CLP Industrial Production (YoY)		0.6%	-7.5%
13:45	USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index		58.0	59.4
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		94.5	94.5
14:30	BRL Nominal Budget Balance			-15.42B
14:30	BRL Primary Budget Surplus			12.91B
15:00	COP National Jobless Rate			8.9%
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			758
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			328.8K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$150.7K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$8.6K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-37.6K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-50K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€44.9K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$15K
Saturday, Jul 01
24h	HKD Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day
24h	CAD Canada Day

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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