|

FOMC poised for dovish cut as labor market weakens – BBH

Markets expect the FOMC to deliver a dovish cut because the US labor market is worsening. That can drag US Dollar (USD) lower and support risk assets, BBH FX analysts report.

Miran, Cook to attend Fed meeting amid political drama

"Stephen Miran was confirmed as Fed Governor by the Senate just in time for the 16-17 FOMC meeting. Miran is the most likely FOMC member to vote for a 50bps cut tomorrow. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook is also expected to attend the upcoming FOMC meeting. An appeals court allowed Cook to continue working during the ongoing legal proceedings. President Donald Trump could still ask the Supreme Court to step in."

"US August retail sales (1:30:pm London, 8:30am New York) and industrial production (2:15pm London, 9:15am New York) take the spotlight today. Consensus sees retail sales at 0.2% m/m vs. 0.5% in July. The retail sales control group used for GDP calculations, is projected at 0.4% m/m vs. 0.5% in July. Retail sales activity has held up well the past three month, growing roughly at trend pace. However, the sharp slowdown in labor demand points to looming pressure on household incomes and future consumption."

"Industrial production is seen at -0.1% vs. -0.1 in July, though signs of stabilization are emerging. Rising ISM manufacturing New Orders-to-Inventories ratio suggest firms may need to ramp-up production as demand is outpacing supply."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD eases from around 1.1800 after US GDP figures

The US Dollar is finding some near-term demand after the release of the US Q3 GDP. According to the report, the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the three months to September, well above the 3.3% forecast by market analysts.

GBP/USD retreats below 1.3500 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD retreats from session highs and trades slightly below 1.3500 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. The US Dollar stages a rebound following the better-than-expected Q3 growth data, limiting the pair's upside ahead of the Christmas break.

Gold: Record rally sustains above $4,500 on safe-haven flows

Gold sustains the record-setting rally above $4,500 in the Asian session on Wednesday. The Israel-Iran conflict and the escalating US-Venezuela tensions boost safe-haven flows into Gold. Furthermore, US Q3 GDP data fails to lift the US Dollar amid growing bets for two Fed rate cuts in 2026, underpinning the non-yielding bullion. 

The crypto market is preparing us for a deeper global sell-off

The crypto market capitalisation fell by 1.4% to $2.97T, falling below the $3T mark once again. The market was unable to repeat the robust rebound from the local bottom, as it did after 23 November and 2 December, indicating increased pressure from sellers.

Ten questions that matter going into 2026

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

Dogecoin ticks lower as low Open Interest, funding rate weigh on buyers

Dogecoin extends its decline as risk-off sentiment dominates across the crypto market. DOGE’s derivatives market remains weak amid suppressed futures Open Interest and perpetual funding rate.