FOMC minutes: looking for robust discussions on trade - Nomura

Ross J Burland FXStreet

We have the FOMC meeting minutes coming up tonight and analysts at Nomura noted that in addition to "raising the policy rate 25bp to a range of 1.50- 1.75%, the FOMC presented a much more optimistic outlook for the economy in its March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)".

Key Quotes:

"While the economic growth forecasts have moved considerably, we believe FOMC participants continue to underestimate the frontloaded nature of recent changes in US fiscal policy."

"In the recent press conference, Chair Powell said that “participants believe there will be meaningful increases in demand from the new fiscal policies for at least the next let's say three years.” However, we expect that the impact will be far more concentrated in H2 2018 and H1 2019."

"We expect the minutes to offer more clarity on what the participants are assuming for the spend-out rate of the fiscal boost."

"Another area of interest involves the FOMC’s assessment of trade risk. Although Chair Powell indicated that the consensus of the Committee is that trade risks should not affect its outlook at this point, it will be interesting to see more robust discussions in the minutes. Most participants have indicated a “wait and see” approach."

"On inflation, many FOMC participants expected core PCE inflation to exceed 2% in the next couple of years but only slightly. We could glean some sense of how policymakers assessed potential inflationary pressure from further tightening of labor markets and how tolerant they are of above-target inflation."

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

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