Exxon at the edge: Can $XOM break into blue skies?

There is a specific kind of tension that happens when a stock returns to its all-time high (ATH). For Exxon Mobil ($XOM), that level is $126.34. We’ve only seen price action at this altitude once before, back in late 2024, and the rejection was swift.

Now, a year later, the bulls have clawed their way back. But this time, the structure looks different.

The retest of the peak

When a stock hits a new ATH and pulls back, that level becomes the ultimate psychological "ceiling." Some traders call this a "Blue Sky Breakout" setup. Because there is no "overhead supply" (no one is holding bags at higher prices waiting to break even), if the price clears $126.34, it can move much faster because there's no historical resistance left to stop it.

The difference: The rising floor

The reason this second attempt at the ATH is so compelling is the Ascending Support line.

●     In late 2024, $XOM hit that $126.34 peak and collapsed nearly 20% down to the $100 level.

●     This time, the "floor" has been rising steadily. Buyers are stepping in significantly higher than they did last year.

$XOM isn’t just "poking" at the high; it’s building a base right underneath it. This is what technical traders refer to as volatility compression. The price is being squeezed between the all-time high and the 12-month uptrend.

What to watch for

Since price has only been here once, the first touch of the yellow line ($126.34) might see some profit-taking. That's normal. The "real" signal isn't just touching $126—it’s holding it.

●     The Bull Case: We consolidate just below the ATH for a few days, then blast through on high volume. This would confirm the Ascending Triangle and signal a move into uncharted territory.

●     The Bear Case: We "double top." If $XOM hits the yellow line and we see a massive sell-off similar to October 2024, the triangle could break to the downside, sending us back to the $115 area.

The Bottom Line: $XOM are at the finish line of a year-long marathon. Exxon is looking to prove that its 2024 peak wasn't a fluke, but the starting block for the next major leg up. Keep your eyes on the daily close.