On Monday, EUR/USD is trading in the negative territory below 1.1600. The European Central Bank's dovish outlook remains intact and makes it difficult for the common currency to find demand. Economists at ING expect the pair to see a period of consolidation.
PMIs to start show the impact of the gas crisis?
“EUR/USD has shown no interest in wanting to break big support at 1.1500 and a further period of consolidation looks likely.”
“The top of the range should be the 1.1650/70 area.”
“On the data front, the highlight of the week will be the flash October PMIs. Confidence in the manufacturing sector has been softening a little, but we could get to see the first impact of the gas crisis that is hitting the European industrial base.”
“ We have quite a few ECB speakers over the coming week, but not until the likes of Lagarde or Lane change their tune will there be a re-rating of the EUR. In fact, our rates team feel that the ECB cycle is already over-priced (10bp ECB rate hike priced for late 2022) while the Fed cycle is under-priced.”
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