EUR/USD: Seen at 1.05 in three months – Rabobank

Matías Salord FXStreet

Analyst at Rabobank maintain their one and three month forecasts for the EUR/USD pair at 1.06 and 1.05 respectively, but they tweaked their six and 12-month forecast, pushing them slightly higher.

Key Quotes:

“The greenback's safe haven quality stems from its position as the dominant currency in the global payment system. This means that crisis can trigger USD hoarding behaviour. These should have been assuaged by the Fed's announcement last weekend that it had put in place daily swap line with five other major central banks. These could run to the end of next month. In our view, this action by the Fed was instrumental in allowing EUR/USD to trend higher at the start of the week and break (temporarily) the key 1.08 resistance level. This measure, however, is unlikely to totally offset safe haven demand for the greenback if confidence in banks fall further.”

“In view of prevailing tensions we have not at this time revised our forecast of a dip in EUR/USD to 1.05 on a 3 month view, although we are clearly watching events carefully. However, have raised our 6-month forecast from EUR/USD1.03 to 1.06 which also reflects a relatively firm profile for the USD. While calmer waters in this time frame would lessen safe haven USD demand, in tune with our central view this would facilitate the pricing out of Fed rate cuts which would provide the greenback with support.”

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

GBP/USD clings to 1.3500 amid marginal losses

GBP/USD alternates gains with losses around the 1.3500 neighbourhood on Tuesday. Indeed, Cable struggles to further extend its incipient recovery in a context of continuous instability in the Middle East and modest gains in the Greenback.

EUR/USD alternates gains with losses near 1.1540

EUR/USD navigates a tight range near 1.1550 in the latter part of Tuesday’s NA session. The US Dollar’s vacillating price action accompanies the pair while market participants gear up for the crucial US inflation data due on Wednesday.

Gold loses the grip below $4,400

Gold retreats from its earlier tops and briefly revisited the $4,350 region per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s modest retracement follows lacklustre gains in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve, all amid steady uncertainty from the geopolitical landscape.

Shiba Inu Price Forecast: SHIB extends sell-off despite surging futures Open Interest

Shiba Inu (SHIB) maintains a bearish outlook on Tuesday, as it edges lower at $0.00000450. This marks the seventh day the meme coin has sustained a sell-off, weighed down by a weak technical structure. Shiba Inu derivatives continue to gain momentum, with perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) rising to 11.08 trillion SHIB on Tuesday, from 10.46 trillion the day before.

The inflation narrative is still way more important than the employment story

Core bonds sold off yesterday with the belly of the curve slightly underperforming in the US while European curves showed more of a bear flattening. Daily changes on the US curve varied between +4.7 bps (2-yr) and +6.4 bps (7-yr).

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.