EUR/USD: Recovery depends on whether jitters extend or whether they are contained – Rabobank

Matías Salord FXStreet

The EUR/USD lost more than 200 pips on Wednesday amid the turmoil around Credit Suisse. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will have it monetary policy meeting. Analysts at Rabobank warn that a 50 bps rate hike may fail to lift the Euro if investors assume that it is deepening the risk of a downturn.

Key quotes:

“The EUR has been impacted despite reports that the ECB will stay the course an announced the 50 bps move that its has already indicated.”

“Hiking rates by 50 bps against the backdrop of a jittery market and a tightening of financial conditions may fail to lift the EUR if investors assume that the central bank is deepening the risk of a downturn.”

“The best-case scenario is that jitters across the wider financial sector in Europe settle. This would allow the market to return its focus to economic fundamentals and specifically the risks around inflation. This would make it easier for the market to absorb a 50-bps rate hike from the ECB tomorrow and for EUR/USD to rally back above 1.06.”

“The market has already pared back expectations about how much further central banks can hike rates. Guidance offered by the ECB on this front tomorrow, and by the Fed and the BoE next week will be instrumental in setting the medium-term outlook for the FX market. Almost certainly further volatility is in store.”

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

EUR/USD shifts its attention to 1.1900 and above

EUR/USD has shaken off Tuesday’s dip, pushing back beyond the 1.1800 mark amid decent gains as Wednesday’s session draws to a close. The rebound is largely driven by a modest pullback in the US Dollar, as markets digest the aftermath of President Trump’s SOTU speech and continue to monitor trade-related headlines and signals from the White House.

GBP/USD challenges multi-day highs near 1.3530

GBP/USD leaves behind the previous day’s decline and regains fresh upside traction on Wednesday, surpassing the 1.3500 barrier in a context of a modest decline in the Greenback and a generalised improved mood in the risk-linked space. Meanwhile, the US tariff narrative continues to dictate the mood among market participants after Presidet Trump’s SOTU speech failed to surprise markets.

Gold remains bid and close to $5,200

Gold buyers are returning to the fold on Wednesday, targeting the $5,200 area and possibly beyond, after Tuesday’s corrective dip from monthly highs. The rebound in the precious metal comes as the US Dollar loses traction, with Trump’s SOTU speech offering little fresh direction and AI-related nerves continuing to ease.

UK financial watchdog advances stablecoin oversight as four firms pilot issuance

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom (UK) is advancing toward the final stablecoin regulatory framework with a pilot program involving four companies, including Monee, Financial Technologies ReStabilise, Revolut and VVTX.

Nvidia earnings to influence AI trade and broader market sentiment

For the last three years, Nvidia has been the engine of the AI boom, and now Wall Street is watching to see whether that momentum can keep going. High-growth stocks have been struggling to maintain their bullish trend in 2026.

Cosmos Hub Price Forecast: ATOM rebounds slightly, bearish outlook remains intact

Cosmos Hub (ATOM) price rebounds, trading above $2.05 at the time of writing on Wednesday, after undergoing a sharp correction since last week. Weakening on-chain and derivatives data support a bearish outlook, while technical analysis remains unfavorable.