EUR/USD Price Forecast: At make or a break near 1.1600

EUR/USD trades calmly near 1.1600 as investors await the Eurozone flash HICP data for November.
Eurozone’s headline and core HICP are expected to have grown at a faster pace of 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively.
The Fed will likely cut interest rates at its monetary policy next week.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair trades flat around 1.1600 during the early European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair consolidates as investors await the Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for November, which will be released on Tuesday.

Investors will pay close attention to the Eurozone inflation data as it will influence market expectations for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook.

Economists expect the headline HICP to come in at 2.2% on an annualized basis, higher from 2.1% in October. The core inflation is also expected to have accelerated to 2.5% from the prior reading of 2.4%.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades with caution amid growing acceptance among investors that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates in the monetary policy announcement next week.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 87.4% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in December.

EUR/USD daily chart

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1593. The 20-EMA has stabilized around 1.1577, with price holding marginally above it and a modest uptick hinting at an improving short-term bias. The descending trend line from 1.1776 caps advances, resistance seen near 1.1606. RSI at 51.8 (neutral) reflects balanced momentum after a mid-month recovery.

Momentum would strengthen on a decisive close above 1.1606, opening the door for an extension of the rebound, while a break back below 1.1577 would put sellers back in control. Until then, the pair is consolidating just under trend resistance, and the flattening 20-EMA offers initial support as the broader bearish slope eases.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

AUD/USD sticks to positive bias above 0.7100; lacks bullish conviction

AUD/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, holding above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Friday as softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot. Furthermore, hawkish RBA Governor Bullock's comments boost rate hike bets and support the Aussie. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with geopolitical uncertainties, limits USD losses and caps the pair.

USD/JPY approaches 158.00 as Japanese Yen resumes decline

USD/JPY is resuming its upside in the European session on Friday, refreshing two-week highs and nearing 158.00. The Japanese Yen extends losses, despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) expected rate hike to 1.25% and hawkish Governor Ueda's comments, as two surprise dissents against the rate hike weigh on it.

Gold keeps the bid tone in place; still below $4,400

Gold adds to the optimism seen in the second half of the week, trading with decent gains just below the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s advance finds traction in declining crude oil prices and fresh selling pressure on the US Dollar.

Why altcoin season isn't coming back — and what stole its capital

If, after two years of being frozen in ice, Katara and Sokka woke you up to the crypto market, it would seem like 100 years have passed. With Bitcoin soaring to record highs just over a year ago, everyone expected a routine altcoin season, where investors take profits from the top crypto to chase higher returns in altcoins.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The BoJ raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the policy phase had changed.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.