EUR/USD Price Forecast: At make or a break near 1.1600

EUR/USD trades calmly near 1.1600 as investors await the Eurozone flash HICP data for November.
Eurozone’s headline and core HICP are expected to have grown at a faster pace of 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively.
The Fed will likely cut interest rates at its monetary policy next week.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair trades flat around 1.1600 during the early European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair consolidates as investors await the Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for November, which will be released on Tuesday.

Investors will pay close attention to the Eurozone inflation data as it will influence market expectations for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook.

Economists expect the headline HICP to come in at 2.2% on an annualized basis, higher from 2.1% in October. The core inflation is also expected to have accelerated to 2.5% from the prior reading of 2.4%.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades with caution amid growing acceptance among investors that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates in the monetary policy announcement next week.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 87.4% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in December.

EUR/USD daily chart

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1593. The 20-EMA has stabilized around 1.1577, with price holding marginally above it and a modest uptick hinting at an improving short-term bias. The descending trend line from 1.1776 caps advances, resistance seen near 1.1606. RSI at 51.8 (neutral) reflects balanced momentum after a mid-month recovery.

Momentum would strengthen on a decisive close above 1.1606, opening the door for an extension of the rebound, while a break back below 1.1577 would put sellers back in control. Until then, the pair is consolidating just under trend resistance, and the flattening 20-EMA offers initial support as the broader bearish slope eases.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

EUR/USD shifts its attention to 1.1900 and above

EUR/USD has shaken off Tuesday’s dip, pushing back beyond the 1.1800 mark amid decent gains as Wednesday’s session draws to a close. The rebound is largely driven by a modest pullback in the US Dollar, as markets digest the aftermath of President Trump’s SOTU speech and continue to monitor trade-related headlines and signals from the White House.

GBP/USD challenges multi-day highs near 1.3530

GBP/USD leaves behind the previous day’s decline and regains fresh upside traction on Wednesday, surpassing the 1.3500 barrier in a context of a modest decline in the Greenback and a generalised improved mood in the risk-linked space. Meanwhile, the US tariff narrative continues to dictate the mood among market participants after Presidet Trump’s SOTU speech failed to surprise markets.

Gold remains bid and close to $5,200

Gold buyers are returning to the fold on Wednesday, targeting the $5,200 area and possibly beyond, after Tuesday’s corrective dip from monthly highs. The rebound in the precious metal comes as the US Dollar loses traction, with Trump’s SOTU speech offering little fresh direction and AI-related nerves continuing to ease.

UK financial watchdog advances stablecoin oversight as four firms pilot issuance

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom (UK) is advancing toward the final stablecoin regulatory framework with a pilot program involving four companies, including Monee, Financial Technologies ReStabilise, Revolut and VVTX.

Nvidia earnings to influence AI trade and broader market sentiment

For the last three years, Nvidia has been the engine of the AI boom, and now Wall Street is watching to see whether that momentum can keep going. High-growth stocks have been struggling to maintain their bullish trend in 2026.

Cosmos Hub Price Forecast: ATOM rebounds slightly, bearish outlook remains intact

Cosmos Hub (ATOM) price rebounds, trading above $2.05 at the time of writing on Wednesday, after undergoing a sharp correction since last week. Weakening on-chain and derivatives data support a bearish outlook, while technical analysis remains unfavorable.