EUR/USD jumps to two-week highs with US Manufacturing data on focus

The Euro hits fresh two-week highs above 1.1630, amid broad-based USD weakness.
Eurozone manufacturing activity contracted beyond expectations in November.
The US Dollar remains on its back foot amid hopes of Fed interest rate cuts.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

EUR/USD maintains a firm tone and extends gains for the sixth consecutive day on Monday, trading at two-week highs beyond 1.1630 at the time of writing. A downside correction of November's Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has failed to halt the Euro (EUR), and the focus now turns to US manufacturing activity data.

The US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive, with investors bracing for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut next week. Beyond that, US President Donald Trump might announce the White House economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, as the central bank's next chairman, according to Reuters. Hasset is a vocal dove and is expected to bring Trump's agenda of a loose monetary policy.

Later on Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion in Stanford, California, yet the highlight of the day will be the November ISM Manufacturing PMI release, due at 15:00 GMT.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.29%	-0.05%	-0.79%	-0.05%	-0.04%	0.03%	-0.16%
EUR	0.29%		0.24%	-0.43%	0.24%	0.25%	0.31%	0.15%
GBP	0.05%	-0.24%		-0.68%	-0.00%	0.02%	0.08%	-0.09%
JPY	0.79%	0.43%	0.68%		0.68%	0.69%	0.75%	0.58%
CAD	0.05%	-0.24%	0.00%	-0.68%		0.00%	0.07%	-0.09%
AUD	0.04%	-0.25%	-0.02%	-0.69%	-0.01%		0.06%	-0.10%
NZD	-0.03%	-0.31%	-0.08%	-0.75%	-0.07%	-0.06%		-0.16%
CHF	0.16%	-0.15%	0.09%	-0.58%	0.09%	0.10%	0.16%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Euro extends its recovery unfazed by the Eurozone's weak manufacturing activity

Eurozone's final HCOB Manufacturing PMI revealed that the sector's activity contracted to a five-month low of 49.6 in November, beyond the 49.7 reading seen at the preliminary estimation and down from 50.0 in October.
The Euro, however, remains bid, mostly due to USD weakness. Growing bets that the Fed is cutting its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points next week and, a few more times next year, are keeping investors away from the US Dollar
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to participate in a panel at the Hoover Institute in a memorial lecture about George P. Schulz and Economic Policy, although he is not expected to talk about monetary policy because the Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the December meeting
Later on, the focus will shift to November's US ISM PMI, which is expected to have eased to 48.6 from 48.7 in October. The Prices Paid sub-index is seen growing to 59.6 from 50.0 in October. The employment gauge is likely to be observed with particular interest.
The economic calendar is packed with data this week, with Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) on Tuesday, Services PMIs from Eurozone and the US on Wednesday, together with the ADP Employment Change report, and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices Index on Friday.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD pierces the 1.1615 resistance area

The US Dollar's weakness is giving EUR/USD bulls confidence to test the top of the descending channel from early October highs, at 1.1615. Technical indicators are mixed; the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory near the 60.0 level, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is hovering around the signal line, which points to a fading bullish momentum.

A clear confirmation above the mentioned 1.1615 would signal a trend shift and bring the 1.1660 - 1.1670 area (October 28, 29, November 13, 14 highs) into focus. Further up, the next target is the October 17 high, right below 1.1730.

Immediate support remains at 1.1550 (around November 21 and 24 highs). Further down, the 1.1500 psychological level might hold bears ahead of the November 5 lows, near 1.1470.

Economic Indicator

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

Why it matters to traders?

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.

Economic Indicator

ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector, taking into account expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in US. The ISM Prices Paid represents business sentiment regarding future inflation. A high reading is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative.

AUD/USD climbs to four-month highs near 0.7230

AUD/USD keeps its bid tone well in place for yet another day, this time advancing to the 0.7220-0.7230 band to hit fresh four-month high on Monday. The persistent uptrend in the pair comes on the back of the resurgence of the bearish trend in the Greenback amid unabated tensions in the Middle East. Next on tap in Oz will be the Westpac’s Consumer Confidence index, housing data, and speeches by the RBA’s Hunter and Hauser

USD/JPY holds on just above 154.00

USD/JPY weakens further and remains close to the 154.00 neighbourhood, or seven-month lows, ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The pair’s severe retracement comes in response to rising bets of a rate hike by the BoJ at its next meeting coupled with repatriation speculation, while the offered stance in the Greenback adds to the overall bearish mood.

Gold bounces off lows, back above $4,400

Gold builds on Friday’s losses, although it manages to regain some composure and reclaim the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal’s decline follows the move lower in the Greenback and steady caution ahead of key US data releases toward the end of the week.

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Bitcoin (BTC) is correcting below $79,000 on Monday, mirroring the broader cryptocurrency market’s lethargic, bearish-shifting outlook. The Crypto King was rejected near $81,500 last Thursday, suggesting investor exhaustion. Meanwhile, Gold (XAU/USD) remains pressed against the near-term $4,400 support, as focus shifts to the upcoming United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday.

Strong US jobs, Middle East tensions and key inflation data ahead

Good morning all, hope you enjoyed your weekend. Markets are starting the week after Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which increased expectations that the Fed could raise rates at its September meeting. However, US markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday, so liquidity should be lower and we may see slower price action.

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