EUR/USD fails to recover 1.0200, looks vulnerable as dollar remains firm

US dollar holds onto important daily gains after NFP.
Employment reports boost US dollar and yields.
EUR/USD heads for a modest weekly loss.

Matías Salord FXStreet

The EUR/USD bottomed on Friday at 1.0140 and then rebounded. The recovery of the euro was not strong enough to regain 1.0200. Near the end of the week, the pair looks vulnerable, on the back of a stronger US dollar.

The July employment report showed the US economy added 528K jobs, much more than expected. US yields jumped after the report boosting the greenback across the board.

After NFP, the key report next week will be US inflation numbers. The July CPI is due on Wednesday and a monthly 0.2% increase is expected. On Thursday the PPI will be released. The numbers will be critical for Fed rate expectations. The employment report left the doors open to aggressive tightening.

Another week in the range

Despite the FOMC and the NFP, the EUR/USD continues to move sideways, as has been the case since mid-July. The euro continues to be rejected from near the 1.0280 zone while at the same time it keeps finding support around 1.0100.

“The weekly chart shows that the long-term bearish stance remains intact. Technical indicators hold within negative levels, the Momentum advancing but the RSI extending its consolidation at around 31. At the same time, the 20 SMA heads south almost vertically, roughly 350 pips above the current level but over 800 pips below the longer ones, a sign of bears’ dominance”, explains Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analysts at FXStreet.

According to Bednarik, a break below 1.0105 will open the door for a retest of parity. On the upside, she argues “EUR/USD would need to accelerate through 1.0280 to shrug off the negative stance and extend its recovery towards 1.0360 first and en route to 1.0440 then.”

Technical levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0163
Today Daily Change	-0.0083
Today Daily Change %	-0.81
Today daily open	1.0246

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0161
Daily SMA50	1.0387
Daily SMA100	1.0571
Daily SMA200	1.0936

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0254
Previous Daily Low	1.0154
Previous Weekly High	1.0258
Previous Weekly Low	1.0097
Previous Monthly High	1.0486
Previous Monthly Low	0.9952
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0216
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0192
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0182
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0119
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0083
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0281
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0317
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0381

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

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