EUR/USD holds losses as markets await US ISM Manufacturing PMI figures

EUR/USD has opened the week on the same soft tone that closed the previous one. The pair trades at four-week lows of 1.1690 at the time of writing, with traders trying to look ahead to the US intervention in Venezuela into a slew of key US macroeconomic releases due later in the week.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is expected to appear in a US court later on Monday, after being captured by US forces over the weekend, and US President Donald Trump has warned about the possibility of further attacks on the country if the authorities do not cooperate with US plans to open up the country's Oil industry and stop drug trafficking.

Market sentiment, however, has hardly been affected by the weekend's events. The main Asian indices have been trading higher, and European markets are pointing to a mildly positive opening.

In FX markets, the trend of a stronger US Dollar (USD) observed late last week has extended into this one. Upbeat US home sales and Jobless Claims data last week strengthened the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance of a very gradual easing cycle,

Investors await the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) due later on Monday to confirm those views, although the highlight of the week will be December's Nonfarm Payrolls report, due on Friday.

Daily Digest Market Movers: US Dollar gains as investors reassess Fed easing bets

• The US Dollar has opened 2026 on a strong note. Last week, US Pending Home Sales and US Jobless Claims figures beat expectations, and the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI confirmed a moderate growth of the sector's activity and endorsed the Fed hawks' view supporting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, considering the sticky inflationary pressures.
• The growing geopolitical tensions after the attack on Venezuela have had a minor impact on markets so far. Stocks rose in Asia, and Oil prices fell in a sign that investors are looking beyond Maduro's capture, focusing on the US economic figures, due to be released this week
• The US calendar opens this week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to show a minor improvement to 48.3 in December from 48.2 in the previous month.
• The highlight of the week, however, will be December's Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be observed with interest to assess the momentum of the US labour market and will provide further insight into the Fed's interest rate path.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD is clinging to 1.1670 support

The EUR/USD has extended its correction from 1.1800 highs to four-week lows below 1.1700, and technical indicators point to further decline. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 30, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing red bars, highlighting a strong bearish momentum.

The pair has found support near 1.1670, but so far, it seems unable to post any significant recovery. Further down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December rally, at 1.1650, might provide support ahead of the 1.1615 area, where the December 8 and 9 lows meet the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mentioned cycle.

A bullish reaction should breach previous support levels at the 1.1715-1.1720 area (December 31, January 2 lows) to ease negative pressure and aim for the January 2 high, at 1.1765.