|

USD/JPY climbs on safe-haven Dollar demand, despite BoJ rate hike expectations

  • USD/JPY posts solid gains as the US currency benefits from renewed safe-haven demand.
  • Comments from a BoJ official keep the prospect of further rate hikes alive.
  • Investors await the ISM Manufacturing index and upcoming US employment data.

USD/JPY trades around 157.50 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.84% on the day, moving closer to the February high at 157.66 and maintaining a bullish tone supported by the strength of the US Dollar (USD).

The Greenback benefits from a marked increase in risk aversion amid escalating military tensions involving the United States (US), Israel and Iran. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rises firmly and supports Dollar-denominated pairs. Demand for safe-haven assets intensifies as the Middle East war fuels concerns about a prolonged conflict, strengthening the US currency.

On the Japanese side, the Japanese Yen (JPY) shows relative resilience, supported by its own safe-haven status. However, the advance in USD/JPY indicates that US Dollar strength currently outweighs defensive flows into the Japanese currency. Comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino maintain the prospect of additional monetary tightening. He noted that the central bank could continue to gradually raise interest rates toward a neutral level if economic and inflation projections materialize, even if headline inflation temporarily falls below the 2% target.

These remarks come as recent data show a slowdown in core inflation in Tokyo, reviving questions about the exact timing of the next rate hike. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated that the institution stands ready to adjust policy if price and growth outlooks strengthen, leaving the door open to a gradual normalization process.

In the United States, market attention now turns to a data-heavy week. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February is due at 15:00 GMT and is expected to ease slightly to 51.8 from 52.6 previously, while remaining in expansion territory. Sub-components related to Employment, New Orders and Prices Paid will be closely monitored to assess the strength of industrial activity and its implications for the path of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

More broadly, investors are preparing for heightened volatility ahead of key labor market releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled later this week. Weaker-than-expected figures could revive expectations of monetary easing from the Fed and weigh on the US Dollar, while robust data would reinforce the case for a prolonged restrictive stance, potentially supporting USD/JPY.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.92%0.59%0.82%0.26%0.79%1.03%1.17%
EUR-0.92%-0.33%-0.11%-0.65%-0.13%0.10%0.25%
GBP-0.59%0.33%0.23%-0.33%0.20%0.43%0.57%
JPY-0.82%0.11%-0.23%-0.54%-0.02%0.22%0.36%
CAD-0.26%0.65%0.33%0.54%0.53%0.75%0.91%
AUD-0.79%0.13%-0.20%0.02%-0.53%0.23%0.38%
NZD-1.03%-0.10%-0.43%-0.22%-0.75%-0.23%0.14%
CHF-1.17%-0.25%-0.57%-0.36%-0.91%-0.38%-0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Ghiles Guezout

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

More from Ghiles Guezout
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD sits near a one-month top, above 0.7000 amid fresh USD selling

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 through the Asian session, trading near a one-month high touched earlier this Monday amid renewed US Dollar selling. US bond yields decline further amid a modest pullback in crude oil prices, capping the USD recovery from a three-week low. Moreover, bets for a November RBA rate hike support the Aussie, though upside seems capped ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting, starting Tuesday.

USD/JPY struggles below 157.00 on weak USD; holds above one-month low ahead of Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Monday, stalling its recovery from the lowest level since September 18, touched Friday as a further decline in US bond yields weighs on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen benefits from a more hawkish BoJ, further weighing on the currency pair. The downside, however, seems limited as traders keenly await Fed and BoJ policy meetings later this week.

Gold gains at start of Fed’s policy week

Gold finds bids below $4,000 in the Asian trade on Monday. The precious metal starts the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy week on positive note, but is broadly vulnerable, being closer to its three-month low of $3,975.



Bitcoin slides below $80,000, Ethereum and XRP bears in control
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) bears remain in control, extending losses on Monday after three straight weeks of declines. BTC slips below $80,000, while ETH and XRP follow BTC’s lead and trade lower at $2,315 and $1.30, respectively. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies suggests weakening momentum indicators, raising the risk of a deeper correction.
CFTC Report: WTI rally runs ahead of positioning
The week in one sentence: WTI prices surged while speculative longs were cut in the week to October 20, creating the clearest price/positioning divergence. Sterling and the Canadian Dollar led the constructive currency shift, while Yen longs also rebuilt. Speculators turned less constructive on the WTI, reducing their net exposure to around 89.3K contracts.
What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.