EUR/USD: Data-heavy day ahead, European election uncertainty may restrict gains

  • EUR/USD remains depressed ahead of German GDP, preliminary PMIs and IFO numbers.
  • Caution due to European Union elections will likely limit the EUR's ability to cheer upbeat macro data.

EUR/USD is on the back foot near 1.1150 ahead of key macroeconomic data released in Europe, having created a bearish hammer candle on Wednesday.

The German data scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT is expected to show the Eurozone's biggest economy expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2019, having registered a growth rate of 0.4% in the final three months of 2018.

The EUR may remain resilient in the face of a weaker-than-expected data, as the first quarter slowdown has been priced in by the markets.

That said, the common currency could take a beating if the relatively forward-looking preliminary German and Eurozone PMI indices show deterioration in the manufacturing activity in May. The preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI for Germany, due at 07:30 GMT, is forecasted to rise slightly to 44.8 from the previous month's print of 44.4. Meanwhile, the Eurozone PMI is seen rising to 48.1 from 47.9. Also scheduled for release at 08:00 GMT are German IFO surveys.

Above-forecast PMIs and IFO surveys could put a bid under the EUR. The gains, however, could be muted on account of European Union election uncertainty.

The voting kicks off today and many investors are worried that the anti-EU and populist parties could make strong headway. It is worth noting that anti-EU sentiment and populism is widely considered as negative for the EUR.

Technical Levels


Today last price 1.115
Today Daily Change -0.0002
Today Daily Change % -0.02
Today daily open 1.1152
Daily SMA20 1.1187
Daily SMA50 1.1237
Daily SMA100 1.1303
Daily SMA200 1.1392
Previous Daily High 1.1182
Previous Daily Low 1.1148
Previous Weekly High 1.1264
Previous Weekly Low 1.1154
Previous Monthly High 1.1326
Previous Monthly Low 1.1111
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1161
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.117
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.114
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1127
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.1106
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1174
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1195
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1208



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