• The EUR/USD slides during the North American session, some 0.09%.
  • ECB minutes lifted the EUR/USD above 1.0900, but a risk-off sentiment and Fed’s minutes dragged the pair under the former.
  • EUR/USD Price Forecast: The break of a rising wedge opened the door towards 1.0700.

The shared currency is almost flat in the North American session after reaching a daily high at 1.0938, courtesy of hawkish than expected European Central Bank (ECB) March meeting minutes, despite broad risk aversion in the market. Nevertheless, of late, the EUR/USD dipped below the 1.0900 mark and is trading at 1.0879 at the time of writing.

ECB minutes perceived as hawkish

On Thursday, the ECB unveiled its March 10 minutes. The Governing Council (GC) said that it could afford to be patient, with measures of long-term inflation expectations at around 2%. Regarding the Ukraine-Russia War, the GC added that the initial effects of the war on the EU economy would be upwards on inflation and downwards on economic growth and noted that it could have inflationary/disinflationary impacts in the longer term.

Concerning inflation, a large number of ECB members noted that inflation is high and persistent, so-called for immediate further steps toward monetary policy normalization.

The EUR/USD reacted upwards on the release. However, a dismal market sentiment courtesy of the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war, and Wednesday’s hawkish Federal Reserve minutes, exerted downward pressure on the common currency, dragging the pair back under the 1.0900 mark.

The EU economic docket revealed Retail Sales for February. The monthly reading expanded by 0.3%, at a slower pace than the 0.6% estimated. But, the year-over-year figure rose by 5%, higher than the 4.8% foreseen though trailed by January’s 8.4% increase.

The US docket revealed Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on April 2, which came at 166K less than the 200K expected.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD bias remains downwards and further cemented it when on April 4, the EUR/USD broke the upslope trendline of a rising wedge, which opened the door towards 1.0700, but first would need to overcome some hurdles on its way down.

The EUR/USD first support would be 1.0848. A breach of the latter would expose the 2022 YTD low at 1.0806, followed by April 2020 swing lows around 1.0727, and then the abovementioned 1.0700 mark.

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.0884
Today Daily Change -0.0010
Today Daily Change % -0.09
Today daily open 1.0894
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.1005
Daily SMA50 1.1152
Daily SMA100 1.1233
Daily SMA200 1.1471
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.0938
Previous Daily Low 1.0874
Previous Weekly High 1.1185
Previous Weekly Low 1.0945
Previous Monthly High 1.1233
Previous Monthly Low 1.0806
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0899
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0914
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0866
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0838
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0802
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.093
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0966
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0994

 

 

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