EUR/CHF rebounds as French political relief boosts Euro, Swiss growth outlook dims

The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, with EUR/CHF snapping a four-day losing streak after briefly dipping to its lowest level since April 17 earlier in the day. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.9290, holding firm as buyers struggle to extend gains beyond the 0.9300 psychological barrier.

The recovery in the common currency comes as political tensions in France ease, after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes in Parliament. The outcome averted the immediate threat of government collapse, giving markets a brief sense of relief. Lecornu’s survival was secured after pledging to suspend President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial pension reform until after the 2027 election.

Meanwhile, in Switzerland, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) released its October economic forecasts, painting a more cautious picture of the Swiss economy. SECO maintained its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 1.3% but cut its 2026 projection to 0.9% from 1.2%, citing the negative impact of US tariffs and a stronger Swiss Franc on exports.

The report noted that the 39% tariff rate on Swiss goods entering the US since August has severely hurt export competitiveness, particularly for the industrial and machinery sectors. SECO added that “persistent uncertainty and weak global demand are expected to cap growth into 2026.”

Inflation is expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, reinforcing expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy.

EUR/CHF remains under pressure but shows signs of short-term stabilization after bouncing from an intraday low near 0.9261. The pair faces initial resistance at 0.9300, and only a decisive break above this level would shift the near-term structure to the upside, opening the path toward the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.9326 and the 50-day SMA around 0.9354. These levels are expected to cap any immediate upside attempts unless broader Euro strength builds momentum.

On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.9261, followed by 0.9223, which marks this year’s trough set on April 11. A decisive break below 0.9260 would expose that key low and potentially extend bearish momentum toward the 0.9200 handle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 40, suggesting that momentum remains weak but not yet oversold.