EUR/CAD Price Forecast: Trapped in a range, breakout required for directionality

EUR/CAD oscillates within a ten-week range – the trend is sideways.
A breakout higher or lower would be required to alter the trend to something more directional.

Joaquin Monfort FXStreet

EUR/CAD is bouncing down a ten-week corridor that has a floor at 1.4890 and a sloping ceiling in around the 1.5100s. That is to say that the pair is in a range-bound, sideways trend on a short and medium-term basis.

Long-term the trend is bullish.

EUR/CAD Daily Chart

It will probably continue in its range until it decisively breaks out either higher or lower. The fact it is in a longer-term uptrend would normally marginally favor an upside breakout but the range’s flat bottom cancels out the bullish bias because it marginally favors a downside break. Overall there is no obvious bias.

In the event of a breakout higher the pair will probably rise up to a target at 1.5319, the Fibonacci 61.8% extrapolation of the height of the range higher. A decisive break would be one accompanied by a longer-than-average green candlestick that broke clearly above the top of the range and closed near its high, or three green candlesticks that broke above the top of the range.

Alternatively, a decisive break below the floor of the range is also possible and such a move would probably reach 1.4690, the 61.8% Fib extrapolation lower.

Author

Joaquin Monfort

FXStreet

Joaquin Monfort is a financial writer and analyst with over 10 years experience writing about financial markets and alt data. He holds a degree in Anthropology from London University and a Diploma in Technical analysis.

AUD/USD stays bid above 0.7100 on Australian trade data, Mideast optimism

AUD/USD clings to minor recovery gains above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, strong AustralianTrade Balane data also help the Aussie pair sustain the bounce from weekly lows.

USD/JPY hovers near the 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high in the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions keep the downside limited in the Greenback and the pair.

Gold rebounds from one-week low as Israel-Lebanon truce pressures safe-haven USD

Gold gains some positive traction on Thursday and climbs to the $4,475 area during the Asian session, reversing a major part of the previous day's slide to a one-week low. The Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and supports the commodity.

Ethereum: Long-term holders' capitulation drives ETH below $1,800

Ethereum has fallen below $1,800 on Wednesday, the first time since May 2025 following accelerated spot selling pressure and distributions from long-term holders. The Age Consumed metric, which tracks the movement of previously idle tokens or long-term holders' coins, spiked over the past two days as prices declined, indicating increased selling activity among this cohort.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.