ECB policy makers divided on rate rise timings – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that yesterday in Europe, Reuters cited unnamed officials who noted ECB policy makers are divided on when the ECB will raise rates next year, in part given the different interpretation of the ECB’s guidance that rates will stay on hold “through the summer of 2019”.

Key Quotes

“Some officials say an increase is possible as early as July 2019 while others do not see a hike until summer is officially over, which suggests a hike at the October 24 meeting as the earliest.”

“Elsewhere the ECB’s Villeroy noted that rate hikes “could come at the earliest through the summer of 2019, depending on the inflation outlook” and added that the ECB is now “implementing its strategy of gradual and predictable normalisation”.”

“Overall these comments today are largely meaningless as a lot can happen before next summer but there does seem to have been some push back to Draghi’s dovishness from others at the ECB of late.”

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