Economist Ho Wein Chen, CFA at UOB Group, assessed the recent Chinese GDP figures for the third quarter.
Key Quotes
“China’s 3Q 2019 GDP growth slowed further to 6.0% y/y (1.5% q/q SA) from 6.2% y/y (1.6% q/q) in 2Q, a new low on record in the quarterly data series (starting from 1992). This was in line with our forecast but missed Bloomberg’s consensus of 6.1%. Tertiary industry continued to anchor growth while secondary and primary industries registered a moderation in their growth rates”.
“Industrial production and retail sales saw stronger growth in September but fixed asset investment and trade weakened. Jobs creation in the first three quarters registered 10.97 million, nearly achieving the full-year target of more than 11 million. This remains an important indicator that the Chinese government can maintain social stability even as economic growth slows”.
“Accounting for the latest growth print, China’s economy expanded by 6.2% y/y in the first three quarters of 2019. For now, we maintain our growth forecast for China to expand 6.1% in 2019 (4Q19f: 6.0%) and 5.9% in 2020 as trade conflicts with the US continue to pose significant uncertainties to the outlook”.
“We expect counter-cyclical measures including accommodative monetary policy, acceleration in infrastructure spending and potential reductions in government tax and fees to cushion the downside risks to growth”.
“The uncertainties in trade talks and risk of further growth slowdown in China to 5.9% next year will continue to drive the gradual USD/CNY rise towards 7.20 by end of this year and 7.30 by middle of 2020 in our forecast”.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading
The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.
EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight
The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
Google starts indexing Bitcoin addresses
Bitcoin address data is live on Google search results after users realized on Thursday that the tech giant started indexing Bitcoin blockchain data. However, mixed reactions have followed the tech giant's reversed stance on the cryptocurrency.
A Hollywood ending for fourth quarter GDP
The latest revisions put Q4 GDP at 3.4%, the second fastest quarterly growth rate in two years. Much of the upside was attributable to stronger consumer spending, yet fresh profits data affirmed it was a good quarter for the bottom line as well with profits up by the most since the Q2-2022.