Gold bulls await move beyond $5,200 amid sustained safe-haven demand, weaker USD
- Gold regains positive traction and remains close to the monthly high set on Tuesday.
- Geopolitical risks act as a tailwind for the safe-haven commodity and revive demand.
- Renewed USD selling offsets the Fed’s hawkish outlook and benefits the commodity.
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to find acceptance or build on the momentum beyond the $5,200 mark heading into the European session on Wednesday, though it remains close to the monthly high, touched the previous day. Geopolitical risks remain in play amid a buildup of American forces in the Middle East ahead of the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks on Thursday. This turns out to be a key factor that revives demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Apart from this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling provides an additional boost to the commodity and contributes to the intraday move up.
Despite the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook and Tuesday's positive economic data, investors remain on edge in the wake of renewed turbulence over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. In fact, minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed that several Fed officials judged that additional easing may not be warranted until there was an indication that the progress of disinflation was back on track. Furthermore, the recent comments from a slew of influential policymakers suggested the US central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates in the coming months amid still sticky inflation.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Tuesday that it will be appropriate to hold in the current range for some time. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that monetary policy is “well-positioned” to address the risks surrounding the economic outlook. On the economic data front, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index improved to 91.2, up from January’s 89.0 (revised from 84.5). The USD bulls, however, struggle to attract any follow-through buying as investors remain concerned about the persistent uncertainty surrounding Trump's global tariffs.
On Tuesday, the US moved ahead with a 10% tariff on all non-exempt goods, as initially announced by Trump on Friday after the Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping tariffs. In his State of the Union Address, Trump said that the White House is working to raise duties to 15%, fueling worries about retaliatory measures and the potential economic fallout from disruptions to global supply chains. This, in turn, weighs on the USD, lending additional support to the Gold price. However, a generally positive tone around the equity markets might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap any further appreciation.
The precious metal showed some resilience below the $5,100 mark on Tuesday, which represents a key horizontal resistance breakpoint and should act as a key pivotal point. The subsequent move up, meanwhile, favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. The positive outlook is reaffirmed by the fact that the XAU/USD pair holds comfortably above the rising 200-period Moving Average (Simple Moving Average), which tracks near $4,930 and underpins the broader uptrend.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold needs to find acceptance above $5,200 to back the case for additional gains
Momentum has cooled from overbought territory, yet the Relative Strength Index (14) stabilizes around 62, keeping upside pressure in place rather than signaling a deeper correction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12, 26, 9) has retreated from recent highs and flattens with shrinking positive readings, which suggests a consolidation phase within an overall positive structure rather than a completed top.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands around $5,215, the latest reaction high, with a break above this level opening the way toward $5,240 as the next bullish target. As long as price holds above $5,150 initial support, dips are likely to be treated as corrective within the prevailing uptrend.
Meanwhile, initial support emerges near $5,100. A sustained break below $5,100 would expose a deeper layer near the $5,050 region, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader bullish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
