China: PMI expectations and Lunar New Year caution – ABN AMRO

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ABN AMRO's report outlines expectations for January PMIs in China, with a consensus forecast indicating broad stabilization. Both manufacturing PMIs are expected to remain at or just above the neutral 50 mark, while the services PMI is anticipated to decrease but remain in expansion territory. The report also warns of potential distortions in Chinese data due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

PMI forecasts and data caution

"Consensus expectation is for a broad stabilisation, with both manufacturing PMIs (the official one and the alternative one from RatingDog) and the official non-manufacturing PMI staying at or just above the neutral 50 mark."

"General note of caution: Chinese data at the start of the year can show distortions related to the Lunar New Year holiday, for which the precise timing shifts each calendar year."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD holds firm near 0.7000 after Chinese inflation, trade data

AUD/USD stays firm near 0.7000 in Wednesday’s Asian session, picking up some bids after China's mixed inflation and upbeat trade data. CPI rose less than expected in September, while PPI inflation picked up. Meanwhile, the Chinese trade surplus unexpectedly widened in September. The pair remains underpinned by a broadly subdued US Dollar, despite the Middle East escalation, as focus remains on US CPI data.

USD/JPY consolidates near 158.50; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus

USD/JPY stays range-bound near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with looming intervention risks supporting the Japanese Yen and capping upside amid a softer US Dollar. However, geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and the pair. Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the release of the latest US inflation figures.

Gold remains offered below $4,100

Gold adds to the weekly bearish tone and slips back below the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. Indeed, the precious metal continues to suffer the stronger US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields as bets for extra tightening by the Fed remain on the rise following US inflation figures.

XRP recovery faces headwinds despite Ripple and Meritz Securities' tokenization push in Korea

XRP trades above $1.36 as bulls gather momentum to face a critical supply range toward $1.40. Ripple and Meritz Securities partner to explore institutional custody and tokenization services for South Korea’s capital markets.

China's rare earth leverage has an expiration date: November 10. Here's what Beijing is deciding

China is approaching a major strategic deadline in its trade confrontation with the United States (US). On November 10, the suspension of additional rare earth export restrictions Beijing announced in October 2025 is set to expire.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?