According to analysts at Rabobank, Brexit is positioned to reclaim centre stage later today with a series of indicative votes in the House of Commons. Although no proposal in last week’s votes won a majority, the closest was a motion for a new customs unions.
“Justice Secretary Gauke yesterday said that if parliament supported a customs union this week that PM May would have to accept this, despite the clear risk that this could split the government and risk cabinet resignations from Brexiteers. The PM is thus being urged to allow a free vote on any customs unions proposal today.”
“Assuming that today’s votes in the Commons are successful at whittling down the preferences of MPs, another series of indicative votes could take place on Wednesday. An emergency summit of EU leaders will take place on Wednesday April 10. The UK has until then to come up with a plan to convince the EU to grant the UK a longer extension to avoid leaving without a deal on April 12. Over the weekend, European Commission President Juncker stated that patience is running out with the UK.”
“This morning’s worse than expected release of final German March manufacturing PMI will do nothing to lift the anxiety associated with the outlook for Europe’s largest economy. This was the lowest reading since July 2012 and the third consecutive month of contraction.”
“UK March manufacturing PMI is due later this morning, though this is unlikely to divert much attention away from the country’s political chaos. Eurozone March CPI and US retail sales and ISM data are other key releases today. These could be useful in forming expectations for the outlook of both ECB and Fed central bank policy.”
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