EUR/JPY weakens on BoJ rate hike speculation, Eurozone sentiment concerns

EUR/JPY trades around 181.23 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 0.40% on the day, after posting two consecutive days of gains. The cross comes under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates sooner than previously anticipated.

Comments from former BoJ board member Seiji Adachi suggest that a rate hike could come as early as April if incoming data support such a move, reinforcing expectations of policy normalization. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also notes that regular talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi did not involve specific monetary policy requests, focusing instead on overall economic conditions. In the Bond market, a strong rally in Japanese Government Bonds contributes to the JPY recovery, helping to reduce fiscal risk premia linked to domestic policy concerns.

Japanese macroeconomic data released on Monday present a mixed picture. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.1% QoQ in the fourth quarter, following a 0.7% contraction in the previous quarter, but falls short of market expectations. On an annualized basis, growth reached 0.2%, well below forecasts. Despite the softer data, the Japanese Yen retains a firm tone as investors focus on the prospect of tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan.

On the European side, the Euro (EUR) faces headwinds from weaker-than-expected confidence indicators. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany declined to 58.3 in February from 59.6 in January, missing expectations for a greater improvement. The Eurozone index also deteriorated. In addition, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany confirmed a monthly contraction of 0.1% in January, while the annual rate remained unchanged at 2.1%. These figures keep speculation alive about further monetary easing from the European Central Bank (ECB).

The central bank nevertheless announced an expansion of access to its Euro liquidity backstop for central banks worldwide, a move aimed at strengthening the international role of the single currency. At its latest meeting, the ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the inflation outlook is in a “good place,” while warning against overreacting to short-term volatility.

In this environment, the near-term direction of EUR/JPY remains driven by shifting interest rate expectations in Japan and by the Euro’s sensitivity to incoming macroeconomic data. Investors continue to adjust positions in response to signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB), keeping the cross under downward pressure.