Ahead of Thursday's national election, the final YouGov poll has shown that Labour Party on track for 231 seats and projects Conservative majority Of 28.
The Conservative lead over Labour has been falling over the past week, with the YouGov MRP model seeing it go from almost 12pts on 4 Dec to about 9pts.
YouGov poll results
UK Election: YouGov/Times MRP Model projects Conservative majority of 28 (Nov. 27: Majority Of 68)Con 339 (-20).
- Lab 231 (+20).
- Lib Dem 15 (+2).
- SNP 41 (-2).
- Plaid 4 (0).
- Green 1 (0).
- Other 1 (0).
- UK Election: Conservative Party on track for 339 Seats (Nov. 27: 359 Seats) - YouGov/Times MRP Model.
- UK Election: Labour Party on track for 231 Seats (Nov. 27: 211 Seats) - YouGov/Times MRP Model.
GBP/USD had been as high as 1.3215 prior to the poll but less committed bulls started to bail out on rumours of a tighter race and prospects of a hung parliament. In the prior YouGov poll for The Sunday Times, it showed that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party had increased its lead slightly over the opposition Labour Party to 10 points.
A hung Parliament outcome could see sterling crosses vastly lower on political uncertainty yet again as we go right back to the drawing board. Another snap election would be the ultimate outcome but bearish for the pound. Again, failures below the 1.3160s open the downside risks. Full pricing-out of the GBP Brexit resolution premium and a re-building of sterling speculative shorts could see cable sent back to as low as the 1.28 level again.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.