Ahead of Thursday's national election, the final YouGov poll has shown that Labour Party on track for 231 seats and projects Conservative majority Of 28.

The Conservative lead over Labour has been falling over the past week, with the YouGov MRP model seeing it go from almost 12pts on 4 Dec to about 9pts.

YouGov poll results

UK Election: YouGov/Times MRP Model projects Conservative majority of 28 (Nov. 27: Majority Of 68)Con 339 (-20).

  • Lab 231 (+20).
  • Lib Dem 15 (+2).
  • SNP 41 (-2).
  • Plaid 4 (0).
  • Green 1 (0).
  • Other 1 (0).
  • UK Election: Conservative Party on track for 339 Seats (Nov. 27: 359 Seats) - YouGov/Times MRP Model.
  • UK Election: Labour Party on track for 231 Seats (Nov. 27: 211 Seats) - YouGov/Times MRP Model.

GBP/USD had been as high as 1.3215 prior to the poll but less committed bulls started to bail out on rumours of a tighter race and prospects of a hung parliament. In the prior YouGov poll for The Sunday Times, it showed that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party had increased its lead slightly over the opposition Labour Party to 10 points.

FX implications

A hung Parliament outcome could see sterling crosses vastly lower on political uncertainty yet again as we go right back to the drawing board. Another snap election would be the ultimate outcome but bearish for the pound. Again, failures below the 1.3160s open the downside risks. Full pricing-out of the GBP Brexit resolution premium and a re-building of sterling speculative shorts could see cable sent back to as low as the 1.28 level again. 

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