Breaking: Cable trades heavy on hung/tighter YouGov polls

FXStreet Team FXStreet

Ahead of Thursday's national election, the final YouGov poll has shown that Labour Party on track for 231 seats and projects Conservative majority Of 28.

The Conservative lead over Labour has been falling over the past week, with the YouGov MRP model seeing it go from almost 12pts on 4 Dec to about 9pts.

YouGov poll results

UK Election: YouGov/Times MRP Model projects Conservative majority of 28 (Nov. 27: Majority Of 68)Con 339 (-20).

Lab 231 (+20).
Lib Dem 15 (+2).
SNP 41 (-2).
Plaid 4 (0).
Green 1 (0).
Other 1 (0).

UK Election: Conservative Party on track for 339 Seats (Nov. 27: 359 Seats) - YouGov/Times MRP Model.
UK Election: Labour Party on track for 231 Seats (Nov. 27: 211 Seats) - YouGov/Times MRP Model.

GBP/USD had been as high as 1.3215 prior to the poll but less committed bulls started to bail out on rumours of a tighter race and prospects of a hung parliament. In the prior YouGov poll for The Sunday Times, it showed that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party had increased its lead slightly over the opposition Labour Party to 10 points.

FX implications

A hung Parliament outcome could see sterling crosses vastly lower on political uncertainty yet again as we go right back to the drawing board. Another snap election would be the ultimate outcome but bearish for the pound. Again, failures below the 1.3160s open the downside risks. Full pricing-out of the GBP Brexit resolution premium and a re-building of sterling speculative shorts could see cable sent back to as low as the 1.28 level again.

Author

FXStreet Team

FXStreet

EUR/USD hovers around 1.1850 ahead of FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD stays on the back foot around 1.1850 in the European session on Wednesday, pressured by renewed US Dollar demand. Traders now look forward to the Minutes of the Fed's January monetary policy meeting for fresh signals on future rate cuts.

GBP/USD defends 1.3550 after UK inflation data

GBP/USD is holding above 1.3550 in Wednesday's European morning, little changed following the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. The UK inflation eased as expected in January, reaffirming bets for a March BoE interest rate cut, especially after Tuesday's weak employment report.

Gold retains bullish bias amid Fed rate cut bets, ahead of Fed Minutes

Gold sticks to modest intraday gains through the early European session, reversing a major part of the previous day's heavy losses of more than 2%, to the $4,843-4,842 region or a nearly two-week low. That said, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution for bulls ahead of the FOMC Minutes, which will look for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's rate-cut path.

Pi Network rally defies market pressure ahead of its first anniversary

Pi Network is trading above $0.1900 at press time on Wednesday, extending the weekly gains by nearly 8% so far. The steady recovery is supported by a short-term pause in mainnet migration, which reduces pressure on the PI token supply for Centralized Exchanges. The technical outlook focuses on the $0.1919 resistance as bullish momentum increases.

Mixed UK inflation data no gamechanger for the Bank of England

Food inflation plunged in January, but service sector price pressure is proving stickier. We continue to expect Bank of England rate cuts in March and June. The latest UK inflation read is a mixed bag for the Bank of England, but we doubt it drastically changes the odds of a March rate cut.

Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple face downside risk as bears regain control

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple remain under pressure on Wednesday, with the broader trend still sideways. BTC is edging below $68,000, nearing the lower consolidating boundary, while ETH and XRP also declined slightly, approaching their key supports.