BOJ will end YCC in 2023 but tweak this week unlikely, economists say – Reuters poll

Anil Panchal FXStreet

"The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will end its long-term yield control policy this year," per the latest Reuters poll published on early Wednesday. The the February 28 to March 6 survey of 26 respondents also anticipates that academic Kazuo Ueda's new leadership will dismantle the complex easing scheme and restore bond market functionality.

Additional findings

BoJ’s additional YCC tweak will be widening 0.5% range, 14 of 23 economists say; 9 say shortening target from 10-year.

BoJ will start unwinding its ultra-easy policy in April, 7 of 28 economists say; 7 say in June, 6 say in July.

Four respondents said the end of the YCC will happen next year and another eight projected it in 2025 or later.

None selected the option "BOJ will not end YCC".

Half of 24 respondents expected the additional YCC tweak in April-June. Seven anticipated it in the latter half of 2023, while three saw it in the first half of 2024.

Another poll question allowing multiple answers showed 17 of 27 respondents said an inflation outlook for next fiscal year and beyond surpassing 2% will urge the BOJ to normalise its massive easing.

Thirteen economists selected a positive turn in Japan's output gap as a trigger for normalisation.

Eleven chose wages outstripping consumer inflation and seven pointed out clearer side-effects of the BOJ policy seen in the bond market.

Also read: USD/JPY Price Analysis: 200-DMA prods bulls at three-month high amid overbought RSI

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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