BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report: Inflation likely to slow, then re-accelerate as wages rise

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) published its quarterly outlook report, following its October policy meeting, with key highlights noted below.

Key takeaways (via Reuters)

Japan's economy likely to continue recovering moderately.

Inflation likely to slow, then re-accelerate as wages rise, inflation expectations heighten.

Uncertainty over Japan's economic, price outlook very high .

Must be vigilant to financial, FX market moves and their impact on Japan's economy, prices.

Risks to price outlook skewed to upside for fiscal 2023.

Must scrutinize whether positive wage-inflation cycle will strengthen.

Inflation expectations heightening moderately.

Must be mindful that uncertainty regarding outlook is very high but trend inflation to gradually accelerate towards BoJ’s price target.

Board's core-core CPI fiscal 2023 median forecast at +3.8 % vs +3.2% in July.

Board's core-core CPI fiscal 2024 median forecast at +1.9% vs +1.7% in July.

Board's core-core CPI fiscal 2025 median forecast at +1.9% vs +1.8% in July.

Board's real GDP fiscal 2023 median forecast at +2.0% vs +1.3% in July.

Board's real GDP fiscal 2024 median forecast at +1.0% vs +1.2% in July.

Board's real GDP fiscal 2025 median forecast at +1.0% vs +1.0% in July.

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Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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